A systems thinking approach to modelling government interventions for energy poverty reduction

Governments have introduced a range of interventions to alleviate energy poverty, primarily targeting improvements in energy affordability and household energy efficiency. However, two key gaps remain in the literature: (1) the absence of a conceptual model capturing the interactions and synergies among interventions, and (2) limited modelling of their long-term dynamic impacts. To address these gaps, this study adopts a systems thinking approach. A causal loop diagram is developed to map interdependencies among interventions, and the PageRank algorithm is applied to assess their relative systemic influence and reinforcing effects. A stock-and-flow model, calibrated using UK demographic and energy poverty data, is then employed to examine alternative policy pathways to 2060. The results reveal that incorporating reinforcing effects between energy efficiency and affordability substantially accelerates reductions in energy-poor households compared to linear, non-interactive policy designs. In the UK context, symmetric low-intensity interventions (a 1.5% annual improvement in both energy efficiency and affordability) yield gradual progress, whereas stronger and mutually reinforcing measures significantly shorten eradication timelines. Achieving full eradication by 2030 would require sustained intervention rates of approximately 8% annual improvement in both energy efficiency and affordability . These results provide insights for policymakers seeking to design coordinated, time-sensitive strategies that maximize systemic impact and resource effectiveness.