Is there a role for liquid fuels in future low-carbon energy systems? – A continuous interaction between global energy systems modeling and local energy port cluster participation

Low-carbon transition is a focus in current energy debates. Given current reliance on liquid fuels, this transition raises uncertainties regarding their future role. This study investigates liquid fuels' future role by complementing a global Energy Systems Optimization Model (ESOM) with stakeholders' engagement from a Swedish local energy port cluster. Stakeholders' participation followed a three-phase process: semi-structured interviews and two workshops. The model examined how liquid fuels may evolve from 2020 to 2070 across different socio-economic narratives. While stakeholders acknowledged their commitment to contribute to a low-carbon energy transition, they expressed uncertainty about the future role of today's infrastructure. Nonetheless, stakeholders anticipated continued demand for liquid fuels, confirmed by local low-carbon initiatives, presented as market and policy-driven. Similarly, model results indicate continued demand for liquid fuels, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation and industrial feedstock. Yet, the cost-effective role of liquid fuels depends on socio-economic scenarios, carbon budget, carbon storage capacity, biomass availability, and interregional trade. Through a single analytical framework, this study contributes to the ESOM community by showing how a dialogue between energy modelers and local actors can be mutually beneficial, i.e., actors can help refine modeling uncertainties, and model results can guide local actors towards low-carbon transitions.