System-level energy modeling of an all-electric regional aircraft under Arctic flight conditions

The transition to all-electric aircraft offers a compelling path toward decarbonizing regional aviation. However, electrifying routes in Arctic regions present unique challenges due to extreme cold temperatures, icing conditions, and heightened energy demands from thermal sub-systems. This study presents a high-fidelity, system-level energy modeling framework for assessing the feasibility of all-electric aircraft under cold-weather conditions, with a specific case study on the Tromsø–Bodø route in Northern Norway. A physics-based aircraft model was developed and validated against flight data from Widerøe, demonstrating close agreement in airspeed, altitude, and energy trends. Unlike many prior studies that focus solely on propulsion, this model integrates auxiliary energy demands, including ice protection systems (IPS), environmental control systems (ECS), and avionics. Results show that although IPS and ECS collectively account for approximately 3% of mission energy under standard ISA conditions, their contributions increase significantly under Arctic temperatures, affecting the total energy budget and, by extension, battery sizing. A dynamic icing severity model was developed and validated against SAE AIR 1168/4 envelopes, enabling energy estimation under variable meteorological conditions. The ECS model also captured nonlinear thermal behavior under various ambient temperatures, showing peak consumption at high temperatures due to active cooling requirements. Battery sizing was performed considering SOC limits, efficiency losses, and regulatory reserve margins. Results show that including these constraints increases the total installed battery capacity by approximately 40–50% compared to propulsion-only sizing approaches. Under −20 °C ambient conditions, the required specific energy increases by over 5%, potentially compromising system feasibility if auxiliary loads are not considered. These findings underscore the need for integrated, subsystem-level energy modeling of electric aircraft, particularly to ensure regulatory compliance and operational safety in Arctic environments.