Comparison of energy vectors for heavy-duty transportation based on integrated driving and TCO simulations

Reducing CO₂ emissions is a key objective in most international energy strategies, with significant attention given to the transportation sector. This study focuses on mechanisms that could discourage the adoption of conventional powertrains fuelled by fossil fuels, favouring those of bio or synthetic origin to potentially eliminate at least their Tank-to-Wheel (TtW) emissions. Since alternative powertrains like BEVs and FCEVs are still in their infancy, the study investigates the variables that make them less competitive compared to conventional counterparts, and to identify the assumptions under which they can become cost-effective. By combining dynamic vehicle simulations (VECTO) with a detailed Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) assessment, the analysis highlights several key quantitative findings, such as: fuel expenditures account for 25–33 % of TCO, a ±50 % variation in vehicle CAPEX affects TCO by less than 10 %, and, under a fossil-fuel penalization scenario, N3-class BEVs show a TCO about 10 % higher than conventional ICEs running on fossil fuels. Battery degradation introduces an additional replacement cost of about 20 % of TCO, while fuel cell ageing not only increases maintenance costs but also raises fuel consumption due to efficiency decay, both significantly affecting the lifetime competitiveness of alternative heavy-duty vehicles.