IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v404y2026ics0306261925019300.html

Optimization scheduling model incorporating multivariate trapezoidal fuzzy parameters under wind power fluctuation patterns classification

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yibo
  • Gao, Qingqing
  • Wang, Bowen
  • Zhao, Zhenyu
  • Liu, Chuang
  • Ge, Junxiong

Abstract

With the rapid growth of grid-integrated renewable energy capacity, accurately characterizing its uncertainties has become essential for power system scheduling decision-making. To address this issue, based on the multivariate trapezoidal fuzzy parameters for reshaping the uncertainty of renewable energy, this paper proposes a low-carbon economic optimization scheduling method that considers fuzzy chance constraints. First, the distribution characteristics of forecast errors under different wind power fluctuation patterns are analyzed. Based on conventional single trapezoidal fuzzy parameters, a multivariate trapezoidal fuzzy parameter selection model is proposed according to the classification of wind power fluctuation patterns. Secondly, based on the analysis of green certificate-carbon joint trading mechanism, the optimization scheduling model is constructed with the system's total operating cost as the objective, considering multivariate trapezoidal fuzzy parameters under fuzzy chance constraints. Finally, through case studies, compared to traditional models, the scheduling scheme under the proposed model reduces the total system cost by 19.63 %, carbon emissions by 19.56 %, and the renewable energy curtailment rate increases by 3.62 %. The results demonstrate that the proposed model lowers the risk aversion level, while showing significant potential in improving both system economy and low-carbon performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yibo & Gao, Qingqing & Wang, Bowen & Zhao, Zhenyu & Liu, Chuang & Ge, Junxiong, 2026. "Optimization scheduling model incorporating multivariate trapezoidal fuzzy parameters under wind power fluctuation patterns classification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:404:y:2026:i:c:s0306261925019300
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925019300
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127200?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, F. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Chen, J.P., 2017. "A copula-based fuzzy chance-constrained programming model and its application to electric power generation systems planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 291-309.
    2. Wang, Sen & Sun, Yonghui & Zhang, Wenjie & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2025. "Optimization of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting for wind power based on ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    3. Leal, Jairon Isaias & Pitombeira-Neto, Anselmo Ramalho & Bueno, André Valente & Costa Rocha, Paulo Alexandre & de Andrade, Carla Freitas, 2025. "Probabilistic wind speed forecasting via Bayesian DLMs and its application in green hydrogen production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    4. Zuo, Jingping & Qian, Cuncun & Su, Bing & Ji, Hao & Xu, Yang & Peng, Zhipeng, 2024. "Evaluation of future renewable energy drought risk in China based on CMIP6," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Huang, Wenwei & Qian, Tong & Tang, Wenhu & Wu, Jianzhong, 2025. "A distributionally robust chance constrained optimization approach for security-constrained optimal power flow problems considering dependent uncertainty of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    6. Mei, Shufan & Tan, Qinliang & Trivedi, Anupam & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2024. "A two-step optimization model for virtual power plant participating in spot market based on energy storage power distribution considering comprehensive forecasting error of renewable energy output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PB).
    7. Zhang, Jinliang & Liu, Ziyi & Liu, Yishuo, 2025. "A scheduling optimization model for a gas-electricity interconnected virtual power plant considering green certificates-carbon joint trading and source-load uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    8. Moretti, Luca & Martelli, Emanuele & Manzolini, Giampaolo, 2020. "An efficient robust optimization model for the unit commitment and dispatch of multi-energy systems and microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    9. Gao, Jiaxin & Cheng, Yuanqi & Zhang, Dongxiao & Chen, Yuntian, 2025. "Physics-constrained wind power forecasting aligned with probability distributions for noise-resilient deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    10. Fan, Wei & Fan, Ying & Liu, Pengju & Wang, Yue & Tong, Fan & Yi, Bowen & Yao, Xing, 2025. "Distributionally robust optimization scheduling model for electric power and computing power coordination considering spatiotemporal response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 402(PA).
    11. Liang, Xuefeng & Hu, Zetian & Zhang, Jun & Chen, Han & Gu, Qingshui & You, Xiaochuan, 2025. "Developing a robust wind power forecasting method: Integrating data repair, feature screening, and economic impact analysis for practical applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    12. Ju, Liwei & Lv, ShuoShuo & Zhang, Zheyu & Li, Gen & Gan, Wei & Fang, Jiangpeng, 2024. "Data-driven two-stage robust optimization dispatching model and benefit allocation strategy for a novel virtual power plant considering carbon-green certificate equivalence conversion mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    13. Abunima, Hamza & Park, Woan-Ho & Glick, Mark B. & Kim, Yun-Su, 2022. "Two-Stage stochastic optimization for operating a Renewable-Based Microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    14. Fan, Huijing & Zhen, Zhao & Liu, Nian & Sun, Yiqian & Chang, Xiqiang & Li, Yu & Wang, Fei & Mi, Zengqiang, 2023. "Fluctuation pattern recognition based ultra-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    15. Cao, Jinye & Xu, Chunlei & Siqin, Zhuoya & Yu, Miao & Diao, Ruisheng, 2025. "Scenario-driven distributionally robust optimization model for a rural virtual power plant considering flexible energy-carbon-green certificate trading," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 379(C).
    16. Zhang, Yuanyuan & Zhao, Huiru & Qi, Ze & Li, Bingkang, 2024. "A two-stage low-carbon economic coordinated dispatching model for generation-load-storage resources considering flexible supply-demand balance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    17. Chen, J.J. & Qi, B.X. & Peng, K. & Li, Y. & Zhao, Y.L., 2020. "Conditional value-at-credibility for random fuzzy wind power in demand response integrated multi-period economic emission dispatch," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Ibrahim, Nur Atirah & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Manan, Zainuddin Abdul & Mustaffa, Azizul Azri & Kidam, Kamarizan, 2022. "Risk matrix approach of extreme temperature and precipitation for renewable energy systems in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    19. Liu, Shan & Yan, Jie & Yan, Yamin & Zhang, Haoran & Zhang, Jing & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang, 2024. "Joint operation of mobile battery, power system, and transportation system for improving the renewable energy penetration rate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    20. Zhen, J.L. & Huang, G.H. & Li, W. & Liu, Z.P. & Wu, C.B., 2017. "An inexact optimization model for regional electric system steady operation management considering integrated renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 195-209.
    21. Chen, Yunxiao & Lin, Chaojing & Zhang, Yilan & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren, 2024. "Proactive failure warning for wind power forecast models based on volatility indicators analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    22. Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Yining & Wang, Qunwei & Ding, Hao, 2024. "How do uncertain renewable energy induced risks evolve in a two-stage deregulated wholesale power market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yujie Jin & Ciwei Gao, 2025. "Market Applications and Uncertainty Handling for Virtual Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Tan, Mao & Jiang, Hongwei & Kuang, Yi & Li, Kang & Wang, Rui & Li, Zibin, 2025. "Electricity–carbon dual response for energy-intensive enterprise: A co-optimization approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Wang, Benke & Li, Chunhua & Ban, Yongshuang & Zhao, Zeming & Wang, Zengxu, 2025. "A multi-market equilibrium model considering the carbon-green certificate mutual recognition trading mechanism under the electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(C).
    4. Huang, Jieming & Guo, Ye & Xu, Yinliang & Wu, Qiuwei & Sun, Hongbin, 2026. "An intuition-based uncertain variable reduction approach for robust optimization in power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    5. Chen, Yunxiao & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren, 2025. "Economically-driven spatiotemporal collaborative correction of high-precision wind power forecasting curves: aiming to more practical scheduling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    6. Yang, Dongfeng & Wang, Xi & Sun, Yong & Yang, Jingying & Liu, Xiaojun & Jiang, Chao, 2024. "Optimised configuration of multi-energy systems considering the adjusting capacity of communication base stations and risk of network congestion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    7. Mehrdad Ghahramani & Daryoush Habibi & Seyyedmorteza Ghamari & Hamid Soleimani & Asma Aziz, 2025. "Renewable-Based Isolated Power Systems: A Review of Scalability, Reliability, and Uncertainty Modeling," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-37, September.
    8. Polimeni, Simone & Moretti, Luca & Martelli, Emanuele & Leva, Sonia & Manzolini, Giampaolo, 2023. "A novel stochastic model for flexible unit commitment of off-grid microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    9. Armghan, Hammad & Xu, Yinliang & Bai, Xiang & Ali, Naghmash & Chang, Xinyue & Xue, Yixun, 2024. "A tri-level control framework for carbon-aware multi-energy microgrid cluster considering shared hydrogen energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    10. He, Jiaming & Tan, Qinliang & Lv, Hanyu, 2025. "Data-driven climate resilience assessment for distributed energy systems using diffusion transformer and polynomial expansions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    11. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Ioanna Andreoulaki & Filippos Anagnostopoulos & Sokratis Divolis & Harris Niavis & Sokratis Vavilis & Vangelis Marinakis, 2025. "Innovative Business Models Towards Sustainable Energy Development: Assessing Benefits, Risks, and Optimal Approaches of Blockchain Exploitation in the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-45, August.
    12. Ziyu Li & Bangjun Wang, 2024. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Carbon Allowances in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Jiang, Sufan & Gao, Shan & Pan, Guangsheng & Zhao, Xin & Liu, Yu & Guo, Yasen & Wang, Sicheng, 2020. "A novel robust security constrained unit commitment model considering HVDC regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    14. Wang, Zhiwen & Shen, Chen & Liu, Feng, 2018. "A conditional model of wind power forecast errors and its application in scenario generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 771-785.
    15. Jiao, P.H. & Chen, J.J. & Cai, X. & Wang, L.L. & Zhao, Y.L. & Zhang, X.H. & Chen, W.G., 2021. "Joint active and reactive for allocation of renewable energy and energy storage under uncertain coupling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    16. Antonesi, Gabriel & Cioara, Tudor & Anghel, Ionut & Michalakopoulos, Vasilis & Sarmas, Elissaios & Toderean, Liana, 2025. "A systematic review of transformers and large language models in the energy sector: towards agentic digital twins," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PA).
    17. Wang, Yi & Qiu, Dawei & Sun, Mingyang & Strbac, Goran & Gao, Zhiwei, 2023. "Secure energy management of multi-energy microgrid: A physical-informed safe reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    18. Melendez, Kevin A. & Matamala, Yolanda, 2025. "Adversarial attacks in demand-side electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).
    19. Jin, Hongyang & Li, Zhengshuo & Sun, Hongbin & Guo, Qinglai & Chen, Runze & Wang, Bin, 2017. "A robust aggregate model and the two-stage solution method to incorporate energy intensive enterprises in power system unit commitment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1364-1378.
    20. Wang, Yubin & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2022. "Multi-stage optimal energy management of multi-energy microgrid in deregulated electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:404:y:2026:i:c:s0306261925019300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.