IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v404y2026ics0306261925018689.html

Optimal sizing of renewable hybrid power plants considering component reliability as a multi-discipline optimization under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Rujie
  • Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo
  • Friis-Møller, Mikkel
  • Gupta, Megha
  • Das, Kaushik

Abstract

The sizing of grid-connected hybrid power plants (HPPs), integrating wind, photovoltaics (PV), and battery storage, is critical for optimizing economic performance. Traditional sizing approaches typically assume ideal component availability, neglecting failure and repair processes, which can lead to overestimated financial projections. This paper develops a stochastic reliability model to simulate component availability time series over the plant’s lifetime, considering wind turbines, PV strings, PV inverters, battery systems, and transformers. The sizing problem is formulated as a multi-disciplinary optimization under uncertainty, incorporating 13 design variables, including wind turbine rated power, number of turbines, installation density, PV capacity, inverter size etc. The optimization aims to maximize the weighted average of expected net present value (NPV) over capital expenditure (CAPEX) and the conditional value-at-risk of NPV over CAPEX. The proposed methodology is applied to case studies at a Danish and a French site with diverse weather conditions to compare deterministic and stochastic sizing approaches. The out-of-sample experiments demonstrate that incorporating component reliability in the sizing process increases the mean NPV-to-CAPEX ratio, evaluated over 100 reliability scenarios, by 2.5 % and 2.8 % for the two sites, respectively, indicating enhanced investment efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Rujie & Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo & Friis-Møller, Mikkel & Gupta, Megha & Das, Kaushik, 2026. "Optimal sizing of renewable hybrid power plants considering component reliability as a multi-discipline optimization under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:404:y:2026:i:c:s0306261925018689
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925018689
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Sayed & M. El-Shimy & M. El-Metwally & M. Elshahed, 2019. "Reliability, Availability and Maintainability Analysis for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Yang, Yuqing & Bremner, Stephen & Menictas, Chris & Kay, Merlinde, 2022. "Modelling and optimal energy management for battery energy storage systems in renewable energy systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Mahmoudimehr, Javad & Shabani, Masoume, 2018. "Optimal design of hybrid photovoltaic-hydroelectric standalone energy system for north and south of Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 238-251.
    4. Bodunrin Brown & Bin Liu & Stuart McIntyre & Matthew Revie, 2023. "Reliability evaluation of repairable systems considering component heterogeneity using frailty model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(4), pages 654-670, August.
    5. Keyvandarian, Ali & Saif, Ahmed, 2023. "Optimal sizing of a reliability-constrained, stand-alone hybrid renewable energy system using robust satisficing," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 569-579.
    6. Gupta, Nikita & Garg, Rachana & Kumar, Parmod, 2017. "Sensitivity and reliability models of a PV system connected to grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 188-196.
    7. Lin, Xing-Min & Kireeva, Natalia & Timoshin, A.V. & Naderipour, Amirreza & Abdul-Malek, Zulkurnain & Kamyab, Hesam, 2021. "A multi-criteria framework for designing of stand-alone and grid-connected photovoltaic, wind, battery clean energy system considering reliability and economic assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Sharma, Pavitra & Dutt Mathur, Hitesh & Mishra, Puneet & Bansal, Ramesh C., 2022. "A critical and comparative review of energy management strategies for microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    9. Guo, Haitao & Watson, Simon & Tavner, Peter & Xiang, Jiangping, 2009. "Reliability analysis for wind turbines with incomplete failure data collected from after the date of initial installation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1057-1063.
    10. Conroy, Niamh & Deane, J.P. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Wind turbine availability: Should it be time or energy based? – A case study in Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2967-2971.
    11. Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Icaza-Alvarez, Daniel & Jurado, Francisco, 2021. "A novel methodology for optimal sizing photovoltaic-battery systems in smart homes considering grid outages and demand response," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 884-896.
    12. Naval, Natalia & Yusta, Jose M., 2021. "Virtual power plant models and electricity markets - A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Duchaud, Jean-Laurent & Notton, Gilles & Darras, Christophe & Voyant, Cyril, 2019. "Multi-Objective Particle Swarm optimal sizing of a renewable hybrid power plant with storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1156-1167.
    14. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joong-Woo Shin & Kwang-Hoon Yoon & Hui-Seok Chai & Jae-Chul Kim, 2022. "Reliability-Centered Maintenance Scheduling of Photovoltaic Components According to Failure Effects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Yang, Yulong & Zhao, Yang & Yan, Gangui & Mu, Gang & Chen, Zhe, 2024. "Real time aggregation control of P2H loads in a virtual power plant based on a multi-period stackelberg game," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    3. Reza Nadimi & Masahito Takahashi & Koji Tokimatsu & Mika Goto, 2024. "The Reliability and Profitability of Virtual Power Plant with Short-Term Power Market Trading and Non-Spinning Reserve Diesel Generator," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Ruben Zieba Falama & Wojciech Skarka & Serge Yamigno Doka, 2022. "Optimal Design and Comparative Analysis of a PV/Mini-Hydropower and a PV/Battery Used for Electricity and Water Supply," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Zhou, Jianguo & Xu, Zhongtian, 2023. "Optimal sizing design and integrated cost-benefit assessment of stand-alone microgrid system with different energy storage employing chameleon swarm algorithm: A rural case in Northeast China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1110-1137.
    6. Mariz B. Arias & Sungwoo Bae, 2020. "Design Models for Power Flow Management of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System with Energy Storage System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Yin, Yue & Liu, Tianqi & He, Chuan, 2019. "Day-ahead stochastic coordinated scheduling for thermal-hydro-wind-photovoltaic systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    8. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    9. Bryam Paúl Lojano-Riera & Carlos Flores-Vázquez & Juan-Carlos Cobos-Torres & David Vallejo-Ramírez & Daniel Icaza, 2023. "Electromobility with Photovoltaic Generation in an Andean City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Zhang, Cai Wen & Zhang, Tieling & Chen, Nan & Jin, Tongdan, 2013. "Reliability modeling and analysis for a novel design of modular converter system of wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 86-94.
    11. Alqahtani, Bader & Yang, Jin & Paul, Manosh C., 2024. "A techno-economic-environmental assessment of a hybrid-renewable pumped hydropower energy storage system: A case study of Saudi Arabia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    12. Li, Yan & Feng, Tian-tian & Liu, Li-li & Zhang, Meng-xi, 2023. "How do the electricity market and carbon market interact and achieve integrated development?--A bibliometric-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    13. Davoudkhani, Iraj Faraji & Dejamkhooy, Abdolmajid & Nowdeh, Saber Arabi, 2023. "A novel cloud-based framework for optimal design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy system considering uncertainty and battery aging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    14. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Lian, Jijian & Wang, Xin, 2022. "Capacity configuration and economic evaluation of a power system integrating hydropower, solar, and wind," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    15. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Yang, Zhikai & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Zheyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Lanqiang, 2024. "Synchronizing short-, mid-, and long-term operations of hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    16. D'Adamo, Idiano & Gastaldi, Massimo & Morone, Piergiuseppe & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "Economics and policy implications of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy's developed market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Kaiss, Mateus & Wan, Yihao & Gebbran, Daniel & Vila, Clodomiro Unsihuay & Dragičević, Tomislav, 2025. "Review on Virtual Power Plants/Virtual Aggregators: Concepts, applications, prospects and operation strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    18. Foley, A.M. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P. & McKeogh, E.J. & Milborrow, D. & Leahy, P.G., 2013. "Addressing the technical and market challenges to high wind power integration in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 692-703.
    19. Wu, Long & Yin, Xunyuan & Pan, Lei & Liu, Jinfeng, 2023. "Distributed economic predictive control of integrated energy systems for enhanced synergy and grid response: A decomposition and cooperation strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    20. Naderipour, Amirreza & Ramtin, Amir Reza & Abdullah, Aldrin & Marzbali, Massoomeh Hedayati & Nowdeh, Saber Arabi & Kamyab, Hesam, 2022. "Hybrid energy system optimization with battery storage for remote area application considering loss of energy probability and economic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:404:y:2026:i:c:s0306261925018689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.