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Cross-framework hybrid artificial intelligence for high-penetration renewable energy integration: Multi-regional forecasting and adaptive control

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  • Rabbi, Mohammad Fazle

Abstract

The rapid expansion of solar and wind power presents challenges for grid reliability and economic operation due to inherent resource variability, potentially leading to inefficient storage utilization, increased curtailment, and elevated system costs. This study proposes a cross-framework hybrid artificial intelligence approach that combines autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for solar forecasting with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for wind prediction, integrated through a multi-regional forecasting hub that informs reinforcement learning-based storage dispatch and region-specific policy parameters. Applied across Chile, Canada, and Germany using 8760 hourly synthetic simulations generated through validated physical models, the AI-enhanced framework achieved 8.1 % global normalized root-mean-square error, showing improved forecast accuracy compared to conventional baselines. Regional performance demonstrated consistent solar forecasting with nRMSE of 10.5–10.6 % across regions, and wind prediction accuracy of 1.8 % nRMSE in Chile and Germany and 2.0 % nRMSE in Canada. The reinforcement learning controller maintained an average battery state-of-charge around 0.80, achieved 100 % voltage compliance with IEEE 1547–2018 standards, and managed high oversupply events reaching up to 2217.9 % of load in Chile, 4580.3 % in Canada, and 2068.6 % in Germany. Economic analysis estimated a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) reduction of approximately 18 %, with regional values of $260.6/MWh for Chile, $189.5/MWh for Canada, and $173.8/MWh for Germany. Average renewable penetration exceeded demand levels, reaching 148.8 % in Chile, 294.7 % in Canada, and 134.9 % in Germany, with minimal zero-renewable hours of 65 and 41 per year in the respective regions. Suggested policy measures include targeted storage incentives for Chile, dynamic pricing for Canada, and battery subsidies and pilot projects for Germany

Suggested Citation

  • Rabbi, Mohammad Fazle, 2025. "Cross-framework hybrid artificial intelligence for high-penetration renewable energy integration: Multi-regional forecasting and adaptive control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PC).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pc:s0306261925015648
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126834
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