IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v401y2025ipbs0306261925014667.html

Techno-economic analysis of inter-annual energy storage and overcapacity in 100 % renewable energy systems for 145 regions globally

Author

Listed:
  • Hasan, Mohammad Hasibul
  • Keiner, Dominik
  • Breyer, Christian

Abstract

In this study, a comprehensive analysis of inter-annual storage requirements for 100% renewable energy systems is presented for the world, structured in 145 regions. This research provides the first global assessment of solar and wind resources on multiple sectors, including power, heat, transport, and desalination. Inter-annual storage options include hydrogen, methane, and liquid fuels. Using high-resolution weather data from NASA from 1984 to 2005, storage requirements, overcapacity for renewable electricity generation, and economic implications across different regions are analysed. The results reveal substantial regional variations in storage requirements, with hydrogen re-electrification systems showing the widest range of storage needs across different global regions. Cost analyses for two scenarios are presented to minimise either curtailment or cost. The study reveals that optimal storage solutions are highly region and demand-specific, challenging the one-size-fits-all approach often assumed in energy system planning. The curtailment-optimised scenario requires 1.4% overcapacity in wind and solar photovoltaics electricity generation, complemented by significant storage capacity of 417.4 TWhH2,LHV, 0.8 TWhCH4,LHV, and 4.2 TWhth,LHV of hydrogen, methane, and liquid fuels, respectively, adding an on demand-weighted average of 103.1% to the baseline cost of a 100% renewable energy system in 2050. In contrast, the cost-optimised scenario requires 5.0% generation overcapacity with no additional inter-annual storage, increasing costs by 3.3%. This core finding reveals that increasing the overcapacity is a significantly more impactful and economically viable pathway than a primary reliance on building large-scale storage. These findings provide crucial insights for policymakers and system planners working towards the resilience of 100% renewable energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan, Mohammad Hasibul & Keiner, Dominik & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Techno-economic analysis of inter-annual energy storage and overcapacity in 100 % renewable energy systems for 145 regions globally," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pb:s0306261925014667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126736
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925014667
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126736?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ingeborg Graabak & Magnus Korpås, 2016. "Variability Characteristics of European Wind and Solar Power Resources—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-31, June.
    2. Ashitosh Rajesh Varne & Simon Blouin & Baxter Lorenzo McIntosh Williams & David Denkenberger, 2024. "The Impact of Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios on Renewable Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Dmitrii Bogdanov & Javier Farfan & Kristina Sadovskaia & Arman Aghahosseini & Michael Child & Ashish Gulagi & Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Larissa Souza Noel Simas Barbosa & Christian Breyer, 2019. "Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Tan, Kang Miao & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Yong, Jia Ying, 2016. "Integration of electric vehicles in smart grid: A review on vehicle to grid technologies and optimization techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 720-732.
    5. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    6. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    7. Satymov, Rasul & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Global-local analysis of cost-optimal onshore wind turbine configurations considering wind classes and hub heights," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    8. Galimova, Tansu & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Lopez, Gabriel & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Analysis of green e-methanol supply costs: Domestic production in Europe versus imports via pipeline and sea shipping," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Keiner, Dominik & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    10. Rodríguez, Rolando A. & Becker, Sarah & Andresen, Gorm B. & Heide, Dominik & Greiner, Martin, 2014. "Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 467-476.
    11. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Khalili, Siavash & Aghahosseini, Arman & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Effects of direct and indirect electrification on transport energy demand during the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    12. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    13. Budt, Marcus & Wolf, Daniel & Span, Roland & Yan, Jinyue, 2016. "A review on compressed air energy storage: Basic principles, past milestones and recent developments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 250-268.
    14. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Haas, Jannik & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Synergies of electrical and sectoral integration: Analysing geographical multi-node scenarios with sector coupling variations for a transition towards a fully renewables-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    15. Dalala, Zakariya & Al-Omari, Murad & Al-Addous, Mohammad & Bdour, Mathhar & Al-Khasawneh, Yaqoub & Alkasrawi, Malek, 2022. "Increased renewable energy penetration in national electrical grids constraints and solutions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    16. Khalili, Siavash & Lopez, Gabriel & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Role and trends of flexibility options in 100% renewable energy system analyses towards the Power-to-X Economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    17. Bruno Cárdenas & Lawrie Swinfen-Styles & James Rouse & Seamus D. Garvey, 2021. "Short-, Medium-, and Long-Duration Energy Storage in a 100% Renewable Electricity Grid: A UK Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-28, December.
    18. Krumm, Alexandra & Süsser, Diana & Blechinger, Philipp, 2022. "Modelling social aspects of the energy transition: What is the current representation of social factors in energy models?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    19. Gea-Bermúdez, Juan & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Münster, Marie & Koivisto, Matti & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Chen, Yi-kuang & Ravn, Hans, 2021. "The role of sector coupling in the green transition: A least-cost energy system development in Northern-central Europe towards 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    20. Fasihi, Mahdi & Weiss, Robert & Savolainen, Jouni & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Global potential of green ammonia based on hybrid PV-wind power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    21. Ribeiro, Alan Emanuel Duailibe & Arouca, Maurício Cardoso & Coelho, Daniel Moreira, 2016. "Electric energy generation from small-scale solar and wind power in Brazil: The influence of location, area and shape," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 554-563.
    22. Falko Ueckerdt & Christian Bauer & Alois Dirnaichner & Jordan Everall & Romain Sacchi & Gunnar Luderer, 2021. "Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 384-393, May.
    23. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    24. Cárdenas, Bruno & Swinfen-Styles, Lawrie & Rouse, James & Hoskin, Adam & Xu, Weiqing & Garvey, S.D., 2021. "Energy storage capacity vs. renewable penetration: A study for the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 849-867.
    25. Paul L Joskow, 2019. "Challenges for wholesale electricity markets with intermittent renewable generation at scale: the US experience," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(2), pages 291-331.
    26. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Gulagi, Ashish & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Full energy sector transition towards 100% renewable energy supply: Integrating power, heat, transport and industry sectors including desalination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    27. Michael Sterner & Michael Specht, 2021. "Power-to-Gas and Power-to-X—The History and Results of Developing a New Storage Concept," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    28. Mazloomi, Kaveh & Gomes, Chandima, 2012. "Hydrogen as an energy carrier: Prospects and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3024-3033.
    29. Widén, Joakim & Carpman, Nicole & Castellucci, Valeria & Lingfors, David & Olauson, Jon & Remouit, Flore & Bergkvist, Mikael & Grabbe, Mårten & Waters, Rafael, 2015. "Variability assessment and forecasting of renewables: A review for solar, wind, wave and tidal resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 356-375.
    30. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    31. Lund, Peter D. & Lindgren, Juuso & Mikkola, Jani & Salpakari, Jyri, 2015. "Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 785-807.
    32. Diesing, Philipp & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Keiner, Dominik & Satymov, Rasul & Toke, David & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Exploring the demand for inter-annual storage for balancing wind energy variability in 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    33. Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske & Gorm Bruun Andresen & Fabian Neumann & Marta Victoria, 2024. "Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    34. Subodh Kharel & Bahman Shabani, 2018. "Hydrogen as a Long-Term Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution to Support Renewables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    35. Fragaki, Aikaterini & Markvart, Tom & Laskos, Georgios, 2019. "All UK electricity supplied by wind and photovoltaics – The 30–30 rule," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 228-237.
    36. Lowe, R.J. & Drummond, P., 2022. "Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    37. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khalili, Siavash & Oyewo, Ayobami S. & Lopez, Gabriel & Kaypnazarov, Kidirbay & Breyer, Christian, 2026. "Technologies, trends, and trajectories across 100% renewable energy system analyses," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 226(PC).
    2. Khalili, Siavash & Lopez, Gabriel & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Role and trends of flexibility options in 100% renewable energy system analyses towards the Power-to-X Economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Gulagi, Ashish & Keiner, Dominik & Canessa, Rafaella & Satymov, Rasul & ElSayed, Mai & Peer, Rebecca & Haas, Jannik & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Analysing techno-economic impacts of integrating wave power to achieve carbon neutrality and electricity based fuel exports: A case for New Zealand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    4. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Satymov, Rasul & Lopez, Gabriel & Mensah, Theophilus N.O. & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Costs and benefits of highly ambitious energy transition pathways for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Khalili, Siavash & Aghahosseini, Arman & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Effects of direct and indirect electrification on transport energy demand during the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Majidi, Hassan & Hayati, Mohammad Mohsen & Breyer, Christian & Mohammadi-ivatloo, Behnam & Honkapuro, Samuli & Karjunen, Hannu & Laaksonen, Petteri & Sihvonen, Ville, 2025. "Overview of energy modeling requirements and tools for future smart energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Haas, Jannik & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Synergies of electrical and sectoral integration: Analysing geographical multi-node scenarios with sector coupling variations for a transition towards a fully renewables-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    8. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Satymov, Rasul & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Impact of temperature dependent coefficient of performance of heat pumps on heating systems in national and regional energy systems modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    9. Oyewo, Ayobami S. & Kunkar, Alejandro & Satymov, Rasul & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "A multi-sector, multi-node, and multi-scenario energy system analysis for the Caribbean with focus on the role of offshore floating photovoltaics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    10. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Galimova, Tansu & Satymov, Rasul & Keiner, Dominik & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Sustainable energy transition of Greenland and its prospects as a potential Arctic e-fuel and e-chemical export hub for Europe and East Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    12. Lopez, Gabriel & Aghahosseini, Arman & Child, Michael & Khalili, Siavash & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of model structure, framework, and flexibility on perspectives of 100% renewable energy transition decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Song, Xunxing & Hao, Xiaoli & Ai, Daifeng & Yin, Wei & Zhang, Shaobo & Luo, Chun & Zhou, Ke, 2025. "Energy flexibility of low-energy residential apartment in hot summer and cold winter regions: A comparative study on cooling season performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    14. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Hierarchical approach to energy system modelling: Complexity reduction with minor changes in results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    15. Salmelin, Markus & Hyypiä, Jaakko & Satymov, Rasul & Galimova, Tansu & Talus, Kim & Karjunen, Hannu & Lassila, Jukka & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Exploring the Shetland Islands’ potential as a green e-hydrogen export hub for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    16. Galván, Antonio & Haas, Jannik & Moreno-Leiva, Simón & Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Nowak, Wolfgang & Palma-Benke, Rodrigo & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Exporting sunshine: Planning South America’s electricity transition with green hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    17. Cárdenas, Bruno & Ibanez, Roderaid & Rouse, James & Swinfen-Styles, Lawrie & Garvey, Seamus, 2023. "The effect of a nuclear baseload in a zero-carbon electricity system: An analysis for the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 256-272.
    18. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Khalili, Siavash & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "The impact of renewable energy and sector coupling on the pathway towards a sustainable energy system in Chile," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Keiner, Dominik & Thoma, Christian & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Seasonal hydrogen storage for residential on- and off-grid solar photovoltaics prosumer applications: Revolutionary solution or niche market for the energy transition until 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    20. Knorr, L. & Buchenau, N. & Schlosser, F. & Divkovic, D. & Prina, M.G. & Meschede, H., 2025. "Electrification and flexibility of process heat in energy system modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pb:s0306261925014667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.