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Real time optimization in wind farms with priorities and chance constraints

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  • Martínez-Gutiérrez, Samuel
  • Merino, Alejandro
  • Sarabia, Daniel

Abstract

The article focuses on the efficient management of grid-connected wind farms, with the objective of optimizing production based on operational and economic criteria, while respecting short-term operational constraints and long-term energy production objectives. To achieve this, a deterministic Real Time Optimization (RTO) formulation based on stationary models is proposed and run hourly. This formulation aims to eliminate significant sources of uncertainty by using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to predict the average wind speed for the short-term (one hour), while employing simple chance constraints to account for long-term variability in wind power production. These constraints are based on the inverse probability distribution of the producible power of the wind farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez-Gutiérrez, Samuel & Merino, Alejandro & Sarabia, Daniel, 2025. "Real time optimization in wind farms with priorities and chance constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pb:s0306261925013649
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126634
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