Techno-economic analysis of deuterium-tritium magnetic confinement fusion power plants

This techno-economic analysis of deuterium-tritium magnetic confinement fusion power plants (FPP) aims to assess the economic viability and scalability of FPPs in addressing global energy challenges and climate change. Amidst a backdrop of substantial investments in fusion technology, totaling $7.1 billion to date, this study critically assesses the Nth-of-a-kind overnight capital costs of a FPP that hosts ARAI, a 350 MWe tokamak reactor based on the MIT ARC fusion concept. The overnight capital costs for ARAI-FPP are estimated to range between $8800/kW and $22,200/kW, with this variation largely driven by differing regulatory and manufacturing assumptions. The overall cost breakdown is found to be similar to past and recent fusion literature, where the direct cost of fusion reactor equipment is the largest cost driver. The levelized cost of electricity, which includes projections for operation and maintenance costs, are estimated to be between $140/MWh and $550/MWh. The findings aim to deepen the understanding of absolute and relative cost drivers in fusion energy and suggest strategies to improve its economic feasibility. The analysis underscores the crucial impact of fabrication costs and regulatory frameworks on cost dynamics, while also recognizing the substantial uncertainty in FPP cost estimates due to the low technology readiness level of several key components.