Hydrogen transport across oceans: A techno-economic assessment of hydrogen carriers

This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of exporting hydrogen using various carriers: ammonia, toluene/methylcyclohexane, and dibenzyltoluene/hydrogenated dibenzyltoluene, with liquid hydrogen as a reference. A tailored techno-economic analysis framework was used to assess key components of the Malaysia-Japan hydrogen supply chain. At a 10 ktonne H2/year production scale using proton exchange membrane electrolyser, the levelised cost of hydrogen produced was estimated at USD 4.77/kg H2, which is applied across all scenarios. While liquid hydrogen presents potential benefits, its high infrastructure costs remain a challenge. Ammonia emerges as the most cost-effective carrier, with a levelised cost of hydrogen as low as USD 10.40/kg H2 (delivered) in large-scale scenarios, compared to liquid hydrogen at USD 17.73/kg H2. Monte Carlo simulations reinforce ammonia's cost advantage, showing consistently lower and more tightly clustered cost outcomes. Material costs, particularly for liquid organic hydrogen carriers such as dibenzyltoluene, significantly impact the levelised cost of hydrogen. Sensitivity analysis highlights transport capital is the most influential factor affecting levelised cost for hydrogen, while dibenzyltoluene market price has the greatest impact on levelised cost for dibenzyltoluene/hydrogenated dibenzyltoluene. The study also underscores the need for innovation, cost efficiency and strategic planning, as the limited gains from economies of scale at higher capacities call for regionally optimised hydrogen value chains supported by global cooperation.