Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) potential in central American and Caribbean regions: A multicriteria analysis for optimal sites

This study presents a comprehensive basin-wide assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) potential in Central America and the Caribbean region, integrating high-resolution oceanographic data from the Copernicus Marine Service with advanced technoeconomic modelling. The analysis employs a multicriteria approach combining thermal resource assessment, technical feasibility evaluation, and detailed economic analysis across the entire Caribbean Basin. The results identify several high-potential areas, particularly along Mexico's Caribbean coast, the Greater Antilles (notably Cuba's southeastern coast), and the Lesser Antilles chain, with temperature differentials reaching over 25 °C in high-potential areas and maintaining levels consistently above 24 °C year-round. For utility-scale OTEC plants, the analysis reveals potential annual electricity generation ranging from 400 to 933 GWh/year per territory, with optimal levelized cost of energy (LCOE) values between 120 and 350 $/MWh at the most favourable locations and net power efficiencies of 2.5–3 %. The study quantifies key technical parameters and identifies five distinct regional clusters with varying characteristics, suggesting the need for tailored implementation strategies. Economic analysis indicates that heat exchangers and cold-water pipes represent approximately 55.4 % of the total CAPEX, whereas Monte Carlo risk assessment reveals that project viability is most sensitive to capital cost variations and capacity factor uncertainties. The research demonstrated high plant availability, with capacity factors exceeding 85 % in optimal locations, suggesting that OTEC could serve as a viable baseload renewable energy option for many Caribbean territories. This comprehensive assessment provides a robust framework for evaluating OTEC potential in tropical maritime regions while offering actionable insights for policymakers and energy planners considering OTEC as part of their renewable energy portfolio.