Optimization of heating curves for heat pumps in operation: Outdoor temperature ranges for energy-efficient heating curve shifts

In the light of global sustainability efforts, heat pumps offer environmental benefits, but their complexity and potential misconfigurations often lead to homeowner dissatisfaction due to inaccurate heating and lower-than-expected efficiency. Among the most important and complex settings is the heating curve and yet there are no easy-to-use methods to optimize it after its initial set-up. This study aims to develop ready-to-use guidelines for optimizing the heating curve with energy-efficient adjustments that improve room comfort and prevent suboptimal user changes, all without requiring additional sensors like room thermostats. Based on interpretable linear models, estimated on 3995 air-to-water heat pumps, located in Central Europe, we select the least energy-intensive heating curve shift for each outdoor temperature, needed to meet room thermal comfort. We find that the standard parallel shift of the heating curve is only the optimal approach when the average outdoor temperature is between 2 ∘C and 5 ∘C. Outside this range, the heating curve should be moved at its starting or the endpoint. Simulation shows that by translating user input to the room controller with our proposed changes, 84.42 % of the heating curves can be improved, reducing the share of misconfigured heating curves from 24.01 % to 7.08 %. This leads to an average reduction in yearly energy consumption of 4.02 % and an increase in the seasonal coefficient of performance by 2.59 % on average. By introducing ready-to-use heating curve improvement guidelines, we aim to increase efficiency and confidence in heat pump technology, ensuring its adoption to meet carbon emission targets.