Regional economic growth and the need for power in New England

New England faces a serious shortage of electricity generating power within 5 years, and unless capacity is built in the 1990s the region may suffer large economic losses. Reserve margins may fall below 20% by 1990, and no later than 1992. By the mid-1990s the region could experience a shortfall of 3000-7000 MW. The costs of this shortfall are conservatively estimated to be: - - $20-50 billion (billion--109) in lost economic product (1986 dollars), - - $3-8 billion in lost business profits, - - 400 000-900 000 jobs lost, - - $3-7 billion in state and local government tax revenues lost, - - 2% reduction in regional GNP by the year 2000. Feasible options available to prevent this are imports from Canada and construction of new plant. Conservation can make only a small reduction in slowing electric growth, cogeneration can only prevent the shortfall from getting larger, and various renewable alternatives (solar, wind, wood, waste, etc.) cannot make significant contributions. While opportunities exist in contracting for Canadian hydro-power purchases, there are high economic risks in relying solely on it. Thus, New England utilities and regulators should consider adding new electric capacity.