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Mathematical assessment of the role of pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV transmission dynamics

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  • Simpson, Lindsay
  • Gumel, Abba B.

Abstract

A new deterministic model for HIV/AIDS that incorporates pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is designed and used to assess the population-level impact of the use of PrEP on the transmission dynamics of the disease within an MSM population. Conditions for the effective control (or elimination) and persistence of HIV/AIDS in the MSM population are determined by rigorously analyzing this model. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is carried out, using data relevant to HIV transmission dynamics in the MSM community in the U.S. State of Minnesota, to determine the effect of the uncertainties in the parameter values on the outcome (response) variable (the associated reproduction number) and to identify the parameters that have the most effect on the disease transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations show that, with the current rate of administration of antiretroviral treatment (to HIV-infected individuals), HIV burden decreases with increasing PrEP coverage. Furthermore, for this setting, this study suggests that HIV can be effectively controlled in the MSM population if, in addition to the current rate of administration of anti-retroviral therapy in the community, at least 61–77% (with mean of about 70%) of the susceptible members of the MSM community are on PrEP (adjusted by PrEP efficacy).

Suggested Citation

  • Simpson, Lindsay & Gumel, Abba B., 2017. "Mathematical assessment of the role of pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV transmission dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 168-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:293:y:2017:i:c:p:168-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2016.07.043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carel Pretorius & John Stover & Lori Bollinger & Nicolas Bacaër & Brian Williams, 2010. "Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Its Impact on HIV-1 Transmission in South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-10, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mostafa Adimy & Julien Molina & Laurent Pujo-Menjouet & Grégoire Ranson & Jianhong Wu, 2022. "Forecasting the Effect of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) on HIV Propagation with a System of Differential–Difference Equations with Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-24, November.

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