IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/apmaco/v264y2015icp13-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Cortés, Juan-Carlos
  • Santonja, Francisco-J.
  • Tarazona, Ana-C.
  • Villanueva, Rafael-J.
  • Villanueva-Oller, Javier

Abstract

In this paper, a computational technique to deal with uncertainty in dynamic continuous models in Social Sciences is presented. Considering data from surveys, the method consists of determining the probability distribution of the survey output and this allows to sample data and fit the model to the sampled data using a goodness-of-fit criterion based on the χ2-test. Taking the fitted parameters that were not rejected by the χ2-test, substituting them into the model and computing their outputs, 95% confidence intervals in each time instant capturing the uncertainty of the survey data (probabilistic estimation) is built. Using the same set of obtained model parameters, a prediction over the next few years with 95% confidence intervals (probabilistic prediction) is also provided. This technique is applied to a dynamic social model describing the evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards the revolutionary organisation ETA.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Santonja, Francisco-J. & Tarazona, Ana-C. & Villanueva, Rafael-J. & Villanueva-Oller, Javier, 2015. "A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 13-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:264:y:2015:i:c:p:13-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300315004476
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Acedo, L. & Burgos, C. & Cortés, J.-C. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2017. "Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 106-117.
    2. Zhao, Yongshun & Li, Xiaodi & Cao, Jinde, 2020. "Global exponential stability for impulsive systems with infinite distributed delay based on flexible impulse frequency," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    3. C. Burgos & J. C. Cortés & D. Martínez-Rodríguez & R. J. Villanueva, 2019. "Computational Modeling With Uncertainty Of Frequent Users Of E-Commerce In Spain Using An Age-Group Dynamic Nonlinear Model With Varying Size Population," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Clara Burgos & Juan-Carlos Cortés & Iván-Camilo Lombana & David Martínez-Rodríguez & Rafael-J. Villanueva, 2019. "Modeling the Dynamics of the Frequent Users of Electronic Commerce in Spain Using Optimization Techniques for Inverse Problems with Uncertainty," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 182(2), pages 785-796, August.
    5. Cortés, J.-C. & Colmenar, J.-M. & Hidalgo, J.-I. & Sánchez-Sánchez, A. & Santonja, F.-J. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2016. "Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 36-49.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:264:y:2015:i:c:p:13-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-mathematics-and-computation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.