From belief to behavior: An exploratory analysis of adaptive behavior to water scarcity, irrigation technology choice, and water productivity in Morocco

Morocco faces increasing water scarcity due to recurrent droughts, climate change, and rising agricultural demand. Although the government has subsidized the transition from traditional flood irrigation to drip irrigation, adoption rates remain relatively low in several irrigated perimeters. Existing studies largely attribute this to financial, structural, and institutional barriers. Less attention has been paid to how farmers’ perceptions of water scarcity shape their adaptive behavior and irrigation decisions. This exploratory study examines how farmers’ perception of water scarcity is associated with adaptation strategies, irrigation technology choices, and reported water productivity levels. Based on semi-structured interviews with 23 olive growers in the Tadla basin (Morocco), the analysis combines thematic analysis, descriptive statistics, non-parametric tests, and a causal loop diagram (CLD). Farmers were classified into two categories, externalists and internalists, based on their attribution patterns regarding the causes and controllability of water scarcity. The findings indicate that perception is associated with differences in reported adaptation behavior and irrigation choices. Internalist farmers tend to report more proactive adaptation strategies than externalists. Descriptive comparisons also suggest higher average water productivity among internalists; however, the Mann-Whitney non-parametric test does not indicate statistically significant differences between groups. The CLD highlights reinforcing and balancing feedback loops linking perception, knowledge, income, and water availability. While findings are not statistically generalizable, they provide insights into behavioral dimensions of irrigation transition. They suggest that policies should complement financial incentives with perception-sensitive extension strategies and training to address knowledge gaps.