Do agricultural large-scale operations reduce agricultural pollution? Mechanisms and spatial evidence from fertilizer-pesticide use in 280 Chinese cities

Green agricultural development is essential for building a sustainable and ecologically responsible farming sector. However, fragmented operations, factor misallocation, and technological gaps make it increasingly difficult to reduce agricultural pollution (AP), even though agricultural large-scale operations (ALO) offer a promising pathway for mitigation. Despite this potential, the literature remains divided on whether scaling necessarily lowers pollution, through which mechanisms it operates, and whether cross-regional spillovers exist—particularly due to limited city-level evidence. Grounded in economies-of-scale and negative-externality frameworks, this study evaluates the direct impacts and transmission channels of ALO on AP using panel data for 280 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2023.The results reveal three main findings. First, greater ALO significantly reduces AP: a one-unit increase in ALO is associated with a 0.018-unit decline in AP. Second, ALO suppresses AP through demographic, economic, and technological mechanisms: a one-unit rise in ALO decreases rural population size by 0.014 units, increases agricultural insurance income by 0.589 units, and expands technology application by 0.019 units. Third, ALO generates notable spatial spillovers. Each one-unit increase in ALO reduces local AP by 0.020 units and AP in neighboring cities by 0.048 units, producing a total reduction of 0.068 units.Overall, this study provides policy-relevant insights into how expanding ALO can effectively mitigate AP and promote green agricultural development.