Evaluating irrigation suitability for wheat in East Shewa, Ethiopia using remote sensing and AHP

Agriculture is the backbone of human survival and economic stability, especially in developing countries like Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia’s agriculture is largely dependent on rainfall, making it highly vulnerable to the unpredictable effects of climate change. Irrigation has emerged as a crucial strategy for addressing this challenge and enhancing agricultural productivity, especially for important crops like wheat. A major challenge in current agricultural practices in the study area is, inappropriate use of irrigation without prior suitability assessment, leading to low crop productivity, soil erosion, and wasting water. This study aims to assess the suitability of irrigated wheat production using Geographic information system(GIS) and remote sensing(RS) based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), by evaluating determining factors and mapping potential suitable sites for irrigated wheat farming. This study employs GIS, RS, and the AHP methods to evaluate and identify optimal sites for irrigated wheat cultivation in the East Shewa Zone of Oromia, Ethiopia. It examines nine critical factors that influence wheat production: temperature, Land use Land cover (LULC), slope, elevation, soil type, soil texture, soil pH, soil drainage, and proximity to water sources. The results categorize the study area into five suitability levels: highly suitable (10.22 %), moderately suitable (25.81 %), marginally suitable (24.96 %), unsuitable (3.39 %), and permanently not suitable (35.63 %). The model’s accuracy was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) method, achieving an impressive Area under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.896, or 89.6 % accuracy. The findings indicate a significant opportunity to expand irrigation, particularly for wheat production in the East Shewa Zone, especially in regions deemed highly and moderately suitable. This study offers a clearer understanding and a practical, data-driven framework for land use planning, providing valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural professionals. By identifying the best areas for wheat cultivation and addressing existing challenges, this research seeks to improve food security, boost agricultural productivity, and encourage sustainable farming practices in Ethiopia.