IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v317y2025ics0378377425003087.html

Applying social cognitive theory to examine farmer migration in response to groundwater salinity: The case of Qaenat, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Shakib, Seyyed Hamed
  • Tabesh, Massoud
  • Yazdanpanah, Masoud

Abstract

Adverse climatic conditions and excessive groundwater extraction have jeopardized agriculture and water resources, caused the salinization of agricultural wells and prompted widespread rural-to-urban migration. To develop effective decentralization policies, it is crucial to analyze farmers' migration behavior in response to increasing water salinity. This study applies the Extended Social Cognitive Theory (ESCT) to explore these dynamics. This study employs a descriptive-survey research method, with the statistical population comprising farmers in Qaenat County, South Khorasan Province. A proportional random sample of 300 farmers was selected and surveyed using a researcher-developed questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through expert opinions, while its reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, ranging from 0.6 to 0.95. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis revealed that the perception of others' behavior (POB), attitudes, and perceived barriers significantly predict the willingness to adapt to water salinity through both technical and non-technical methods. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the ESCT accounted for 48.4 % of the variance in farmers' migration intentions and 29.5 % of the variance in their actual migration behavior. Among the examined factors, perceived behavior of others, attitudes, and social capital emerged as key determinants of migration behavior, while moral norms exerted the strongest influence on migration intentions. These results underscore the critical role of socio-cognitive variables in shaping adaptive responses to the challenges posed by water salinity. Future research could apply various behavioral models to investigate both technical and non-technical adaptation strategies, offering a more comprehensive understanding of how individuals respond to environmental challenges across different contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Shakib, Seyyed Hamed & Tabesh, Massoud & Yazdanpanah, Masoud, 2025. "Applying social cognitive theory to examine farmer migration in response to groundwater salinity: The case of Qaenat, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425003087
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425003087
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109594?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaolong Feng & Mingyue Liu & Xuexi Huo & Wanglin Ma, 2017. "What Motivates Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change? The Case of Apple Farmers of Shaanxi in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Author Correction: Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-1, December.
    3. Mohummed Shofi Ullah Mazumder & Muhammad Humayun Kabir, 2022. "Farmers’ adaptations strategies towards soil salinity effects in agriculture: the interior coast of Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 464-479, April.
    4. Pakmehr, Sedighe & Yazdanpanah, Masoud & Baradaran, Masoud, 2020. "How collective efficacy makes a difference in responses to water shortage due to climate change in southwest Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay & Limin Wang & Marcus Wijnen, 2011. "Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability," World Bank Publications - Reports 12764, The World Bank Group.
    6. J. Chen & V. Mueller, 2018. "Coastal climate change, soil salinity and human migration in Bangladesh," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 981-985, November.
    7. Montaha Boazar & Abas Abdeshahi & Masoud Yazdanpanah, 2020. "Changing rice cropping patterns among farmers as a preventive policy to protect water resources," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(14), pages 2484-2500, December.
    8. Sonia Lequin & Gilles Grolleau & Naoufel Mzoughi, 2019. "Harnessing the power of identity to encourage farmers to protect the environment," Post-Print hal-01999647, HAL.
    9. Jean McGuire & Lois Morton & Alicia Cast, 2013. "Reconstructing the good farmer identity: shifts in farmer identities and farm management practices to improve water quality," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    10. Elinor Ostrom, 2000. "Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 137-158, Summer.
    11. Basanta Paudel & Yili Zhang & Jianzhong Yan & Raju Rai & Lanhui Li & Xue Wu & Prem Sagar Chapagain & Narendra Raj Khanal, 2020. "Farmers’ understanding of climate change in Nepal Himalayas: important determinants and implications for developing adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 485-502, February.
    12. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    13. Rouzaneh, Davoud & Yazdanpanah, Masoud & Jahromi, Arman Bakhshi, 2021. "Evaluating micro-irrigation system performance through assessment of farmers' satisfaction: implications for adoption, longevity, and water use efficiency," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Sharma, Bharat R. & Minhas, P.S., 2005. "Strategies for managing saline/alkali waters for sustainable agricultural production in South Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 136-151, September.
    15. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Nguyen Xuan Hoan & Dao Nguyen Khoi & Luu Duc Trung, 2019. "Assessing the adaptive capacity of farmers under the impact of saltwater intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(9), pages 1619-1635, July.
    17. Phipps, Marcus & Ozanne, Lucie K. & Luchs, Michael G. & Subrahmanyan, Saroja & Kapitan, Sommer & Catlin, Jesse R. & Gau, Roland & Naylor, Rebecca Walker & Rose, Randall L. & Simpson, Bonnie & Weaver, , 2013. "Understanding the inherent complexity of sustainable consumption: A social cognitive framework," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(8), pages 1227-1234.
    18. Zobeidi, Tahereh & Yaghoubi, Jafar & Yazdanpanah, Masoud, 2022. "Farmers’ incremental adaptation to water scarcity: An application of the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    19. Aida Mehrazar & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Alireza Gohari & Mahmoud Mashal & Hadisseh Rahimikhoob, 2020. "Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3855-3877, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zobeidi, Tahereh & Yaghoubi, Jafar & Yazdanpanah, Masoud, 2022. "Farmers’ incremental adaptation to water scarcity: An application of the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    2. Savari, Moslem & Ghezi, Mohammadamin & Molavi, Homa, 2025. "Social capital and behavioral response to water scarcity: Sustainable agriculture policies pathways for adopting dry direct-seeded rice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    3. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Rouzaneh, Davoud & Yazdanpanah, Masoud & Jahromi, Arman Bakhshi, 2021. "Evaluating micro-irrigation system performance through assessment of farmers' satisfaction: implications for adoption, longevity, and water use efficiency," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    5. Masoud Yazdanpanah & Kurt Klein & Tahereh Zobeidi & Stefan Sieber & Katharina Löhr, 2022. "Why Have Economic Incentives Failed to Convince Farmers to Adopt Drip Irrigation in Southwestern Iran?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Kumar Bahadur Darjee & Prem Raj Neupane & Michael Köhl, 2023. "Proactive Adaptation Responses by Vulnerable Communities to Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-30, July.
    7. Tahereh Zobeidi & Jafar Yaghoubi & Masoud Yazdanpanah, 2022. "Developing a paradigm model for the analysis of farmers' adaptation to water scarcity," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5400-5425, April.
    8. Renlu Qiao & Shuo Gao & Xiaochang Liu & Li Xia & Guobin Zhang & Xi Meng & Zhiyu Liu & Mo Wang & Shiqi Zhou & Zhiqiang Wu, 2024. "Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Samar Tyagi & Subir Sen, 2026. "Examining the climate adaptation and higher income conundrum: a case study of hill agriculture in Uttarakhand, India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Peyman Arjomandi A. & Masoud Yazdanpanah & Akbar Shirzad & Nadejda Komendantova & Erfan Kameli & Mahdi Hosseinzadeh & Erfan Razavi, 2023. "Institutional Trust and Cognitive Motivation toward Water Conservation in the Face of an Environmental Disaster," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Sem J. Duijndam & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Liselotte C. Hagedoorn & Marijn Ton & Jens Bruijn & Silvina Carretero & Jeanne Dachary-Bernard & Bénédicte Rulleau & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2025. "Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Sedighe Pakmehr & Masoud Yazdanpanah & Masoud Baradaran, 2021. "Explaining farmers’ response to climate change-induced water stress through cognitive theory of stress: an Iranian perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5776-5793, April.
    13. Nasiri, Amir Reza & Shahangian, Seyyed Ahmadreza & Kerachian, Reza & Zobeidi, Tahereh, 2024. "Exploring socio-psychological factors affecting farmers' intention to choose a low-water-demand cropping pattern for water resources conservation: Application of the health belief model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    14. Neamat Allah Madadizadeh & Hossein Arzani & Seyed Akbar Javadi & Seyed Hamid Movahed Mohammadi & Mohammad Hossein Razzaghi, 2024. "Pro‐environmental intention toward sustainable rangeland's management; application of protection motivation and cultural theories," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 404-434, May.
    15. Martina Spörri & Maria Haller & Nadja El Benni & Gabriele Mack & Robert Finger, 2025. "How farmers’ self-identities affect agri-environmental transition in Grassland Use: a mixed method study in the Swiss Alpine Region," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 42(1), pages 319-332, March.
    16. Wanyan Li & Jincan Liu, 2024. "Investigating Public Support for the Carbon Generalized System of Preference through the Lens of Protection Motivation Theory and Information Deficit Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    17. Tharani Gopalakrishnan & Md Kamrul Hasan & A. T. M. Sanaul Haque & Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe & Lalit Kumar, 2019. "Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Muhammad Humayun Kabir & Kh. Zulfikar Hossain & Md. Javed Azad & Mou Leong Tan, 2022. "Farmers’ climate change risk perception, adaptation capacity and barriers to adaptation: a multi-method approach," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 12(4), pages 769-781, December.
    19. Guiomar Carranza-Gallego & Gloria I. Guzmán & Roberto Garcia-Ruíz & Manuel González de Molina & Eduardo Aguilera, 2019. "Addressing the Role of Landraces in the Sustainability of Mediterranean Agroecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Aurora García‐Gallego & Nikolaos Georgantzís, 2009. "Market Effects of Changes in Consumers' Social Responsibility," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 235-262, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425003087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.