On Perfect Foresight Models of a Stochastic World
Long-run analysis is often based on perfect foresight equilibrium relationships arbitrarily augmented to incorporate stochastic shocks. This paper examines whether perfect foresight models admit interpretations as limits of stochastic economies and reflect long-run behavior and policy effects. It provides a novel interpretation of such models, specifies consistency criteria for long-run analysis, and proposes metrics for model convergence. Analytical and calibration exercises are conducted to show that convergence to perfect foresight need not occur and even when it occurs it does not ensure that relationships between long-run averages or low-frequency components are captured by perfect foresight models. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 104 (1994)
Issue (Month): 424 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, Rm E35, The Bute Building, Westburn Lane, St Andrews, KY16 9TS, UK|
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk/asp/journal.asp?ref=0013-0133|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:424:p:477-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.