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A Precursor to Muth: Tinbergen's 1932 Model of Rational Expectations

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  • Keuzenkamp, Hugo A

Abstract

This paper describes a model, published in 1932, in which explicitly rational expectations are used to study a dynamic problem of intertemporal inventory allocation. The model is very similar to Muth (1961), except that the stochastic process in the latter is serially correlated, whereas in Tinbergen's model the disturbances are serially uncorrelated. Hence, Tinbergen was able to solve a rational expectations model thirty years before Muth's much more well known contribution. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Keuzenkamp, Hugo A, 1991. "A Precursor to Muth: Tinbergen's 1932 Model of Rational Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1245-1253, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:408:p:1245-53
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    Cited by:

    1. F. J. H. Don, 2019. "The Influence of Jan Tinbergen on Dutch Economic Policy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 259-282, September.
    2. Shaun P. Hargreaves-Heap & Ashok Parikh, 2002. "The Market Place for Ideas: An Analysis of Knowledge Diffusion in Academic Journals," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-71, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1993. "Pseudo panel data," Other publications TiSEM a9fb068a-803b-472b-969d-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Hargreaves Heap, Shaun P. & Parikh, Ashok, 2005. "The diffusion of ideas in the academy: A quantitative illustration from economics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1619-1632, December.
    5. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    6. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    7. John G. Thistle, 2018. "The Origin and the Resolution of Nonuniqueness in Linear Rational Expectations," Papers 1806.06657, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    8. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.

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