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Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Bates, Colm
  • Kuik, Friderike
  • Wieland, Elisabeth
  • Zekaite, Zivile

Abstract

Understanding food price dynamics is important both for monitoring overall inflation and for assessing consumers’ inflation expectations. Food inflation was 2.4% in November 2025, having declined from its March 2023 peak of 15.5%, but it remains above its pre-pandemic average. Key contributors to consumer food inflation include price rises of specific items, such as coffee, cocoa, meat and fruit. Commodity price increases have played a role – particularly coffee and cocoa commodities, reflecting extreme weather – as have factors such as wage growth in food-related sectors. While selling price expectations among food manufacturers and retailers indicate some near-term easing, the extent of this moderation remains uncertain owing to some persistent cost pressures in food retail. JEL Classification: D84, E31, Q02, Q11

Suggested Citation

  • Bates, Colm & Kuik, Friderike & Wieland, Elisabeth & Zekaite, Zivile, 2026. "Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0008:7
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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