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Main results of the latest euro area demographic projections

Author

Listed:
  • Haroutunian, Stephan
  • Orlygsson, Leo
  • Schroth, Joachim

Abstract

This box presents the latest EUROPOP 2025 population projections for the euro area, documents the revisions compared with the EUROPOP 2023 projections and discusses the economic implications. The latest population outlook is more positive in the medium-run (until 2050) because of stronger net inward migration, which tempers the increase in age-related fiscal expenditure while boosting long-term economic growth. However, in the second half of the century the population is projected to decrease more strongly than previously projected as a result of lower fertility. This will have the opposite effect on public finances and long-term growth. JEL Classification: J11, J21, H55

Suggested Citation

  • Haroutunian, Stephan & Orlygsson, Leo & Schroth, Joachim, 2026. "Main results of the latest euro area demographic projections," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0006:3
    Note: 343309
    as

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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