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AI and the US labour market: effects on employment growth

Author

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  • Moder, Isabella
  • Pommer, Til

Abstract

The adoption of AI is reshaping the US labour market, with its impact on employment growth varying across occupations. AI has led to a job reallocation, particularly disadvantaging occupations with a high risk of AI substitution compared to those with low substitution risk. An econometric analysis confirms that AI has widened the gap in employment growth between employment in high-risk occupations and low-risk occupations between 2019 and 2025. However, this divergence in employment growth has not translated into wage disparities. JEL Classification: E24, J24, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Moder, Isabella & Pommer, Til, 2026. "AI and the US labour market: effects on employment growth," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0004:1
    Note: 2769592
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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