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The 2021-24 inflation surge through the lens of the ECB-BASE model

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, Elena
  • Darracq Pariès, Matthieu
  • Zimic, Srečko

Abstract

The start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in early 2022 led to major errors in inflation and GDP growth forecasts from December 2021 onwards. By the end of 2022 inflation projections were off by 8 percentage points and GDP projections by nearly 1 percentage point. Using the ECB-BASE model, this study finds that about 70% of the inflation error stemmed from unexpected energy and food price shocks. Energy prices were the main drivers in 2022, while food prices gained influence in 2023. Fiscal policies initially eased inflation but later this effect was reversed. Tighter financial conditions impacted GDP in 2023 but had little immediate effect on inflation. Nevertheless, monetary policy played a key role, preventing inflation from rising by up to 2 percentage points in a worst-case scenario. The model underestimated second-round effects, wage-price linkages and labour hoarding. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating non-linear price pass-through effects and labour market dynamics into macroeconomic forecasting models. JEL Classification: C5, E37, E5, E6

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko, 2025. "The 2021-24 inflation surge through the lens of the ECB-BASE model," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2025:0003:6
    Note: 338657
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    counterfactuals; forecast errors; models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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