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Deutsche Wirtschaft robust in unsicheren Zeiten: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Herbst 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Christian Breuer
  • Martin Bruns
  • Marius Clemens
  • Max Hanisch
  • Simon Junker
  • Thore Schlaak

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in einem risikoreichen Umfeld ihren Wachstumskurs fortsetzen, allerdings mit etwas geringerem Tempo als zuletzt. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird mit 1,8 Prozent in diesem Jahr, 1,7 Prozent im kommenden und 1,8 Prozent im Jahr 2020 aber weiter merklich zulegen. Insbesondere die Einkommen der privaten Haushalte – und damit der Konsum – kurbeln das Wachstum an, denn der Arbeitsmarkt läuft weiter rund: Die Arbeitslosenquote wird von 5,2 Prozent in diesem Jahr auf deutlich unter fünf Prozent im Jahr 2020 sinken – und damit auch zu kräftigeren Lohnanstiegen führen. Die Inflation bleibt indes mit knapp zwei Prozent moderat.

Suggested Citation

  • Claus Michelsen & Christian Breuer & Martin Bruns & Marius Clemens & Max Hanisch & Simon Junker & Thore Schlaak, 2018. "Deutsche Wirtschaft robust in unsicheren Zeiten: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Herbst 2018," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(36), pages 762-781.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:85-36-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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