Author
Listed:
- Ferdinand Fichtner
- Christoph Große Steffen
- Michael Hachula
- Simon Junker
- Simon Kirby
- Claus Michelsen
- Malte Rieth
- Thore Schlaak
- James Warren
Abstract
As a result of Britain’s decision to leave the EU, global economic output is likely to grow at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated. The decision will have consequences for the UK and for the euro area in particular; this is also confirmed by simulations produced by the global econometric model, NiGEM. An expected deterioration of economic relations, especially between the UK and the EU, and the associated increase in uncertainty lead to greater investment restraint. This has been accompanied by a devaluation of the British pound. Both will inhibit the development of the German economy with its strong focus on foreign trade. It will also dampen domestic investment and result in a lower level of consumption due to slightly weaker wage growth. All in all, the German economy is likely to grow at a slower rate than previously predicted due to the Brexit decision: growth is forecasted to be lower by 0.1 percentage points in 2016 and by 0.3 percentage points in 2017. Durch die Brexit-Entscheidung dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung weltweit mit etwas geringerem Tempo als erwartet zulegen. Vor allem im Vereinigten Königreich und im Euroraum macht sich die Entscheidung bemerkbar; dies bilden auch Simulationen mit dem NiGEM-Modell ab. So führen die erwartete Verschlechterung der wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen insbesondere zwischen dem Vereinigten Königreich und der Europäischen Union und die damit verbundene erhöhte Unsicherheit zu Investitionszurückhaltung. Damit einher geht eine Abwertung der britischen Währung. Beides hemmt die Entwicklung der deutschen Wirtschaft mit ihrer starken Ausrichtung auf den Außenhandel. Dies dämpft auch die Investitionstätigkeit im Inland und führt wegen einer etwas schwächeren Einkommensentwicklung zu geringerer Konsumdynamik. Alles in allem dürfte die deutsche Wirtschaft infolge der Brexit-Entscheidung um 0,1 Prozentpunkte in diesem und um 0,3 Prozentpunkte im kommenden Jahr schwächer als bisher erwartet wachsen.
Suggested Citation
Ferdinand Fichtner & Christoph Große Steffen & Michael Hachula & Simon Junker & Simon Kirby & Claus Michelsen & Malte Rieth & Thore Schlaak & James Warren, 2016.
"Brexit-Entscheidung belastet deutsche Konjunktur,"
DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(31), pages 675-679.
Handle:
RePEc:diw:diwwob:83-31-1
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JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
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