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Deutsche Wirtschaft folgt stabilem Aufwärtstrend: Sommergrundlinien 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Karl Brenke
  • Marius Clemens
  • Simon Junker
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Maximilian Podstawski
  • Thore Schlaak
  • Kristina van Deuverden

Abstract

Supported by dynamic domestic development, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year. As consumption and investment in construction are likely to weaken in the coming year, growth in 2017 should amount to roughly 1.4 percent. Foreign trade is contributing relatively little to growth. In both years of the forecast period, capacities will be at more or less normal levels of utilization; there are no signs of overheating. In the medium term, however, stronger investment in the capital stock is necessary to increase the growth potential of the German economy. Die deutsche Wirtschaft dürfte, getragen von einer dynamischen Binnenkonjunktur, in diesem Jahr um 1,7 Prozent wachsen. Im kommenden Jahr schwächen sich der Konsum sowie die Bauinvestitionen ab, das Wachstum wird wohl 1,4 Prozent betragen. Der Außenhandel schiebt das Wachstum kaum an. In beiden Jahren des Prognosezeitraums werden die Kapazitäten in etwa normal ausgelastet; eine Überhitzung zeichnet sich nicht ab. Mittelfristig sind aber kräftigere Investitionen in den Kapitalstock erforderlich, um das Wachstumspotential der deutschen Wirtschaft zu erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinand Fichtner & Karl Brenke & Marius Clemens & Simon Junker & Claus Michelsen & Maximilian Podstawski & Thore Schlaak & Kristina van Deuverden, 2016. "Deutsche Wirtschaft folgt stabilem Aufwärtstrend: Sommergrundlinien 2016," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(24/25), pages 531-538.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:83-24-2
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    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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