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Rohölmarkt: US-amerikanisches Schieferöl schwächt Marktmacht der OPEC

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandar Zaklan
  • Claudia Kemfert

Abstract

U.S. tight oil production has increased substantially in recent years, driven by the high crude oil prices at the beginning of the decade as well as technological progress. Combined with the high production levels of OPEC countries, this development has led to a strong price decrease and a considerable growth of oil inventories. Due to itsshorter production cycles compared to conventional methods, tight oil production increases the flexibility of the overall oil supply, which limits the ability of OPEC countries to influence market prices by strategically adjusting the volumes they supply to the market. Instead, the global oil price will increasingly tend to align with the average costs of U.S. tight oil producers. Assuming no major short-term disruptions on the supply side, a return to the high prices of recent years appears unlikely. In den USA ist die Förderung von Schieferöl aufgrund hoher Rohölpreise zu Beginn dieses Jahrzehnts sowie technologischer Fortschritte in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen. Diese Entwicklung hat im Zusammenspiel mit einer dauerhaft hohen Ölförderung der OPEC-Staaten und einer stagnierenden globalen Ölnachfrage zu einem starken Preisverfall und einem beträchtlichem Lageraufbau geführt. Durch die im Vergleich zu konventionellen Fördermethoden deutlich kürzeren Förderzyklen beim Schieferöl erhöht sich insgesamt die Flexibilität des Ölangebots. Dies beschränkt die Möglichkeiten der OPEC-Staaten, durch einen strategischen Einsatz ihrer Produktionskapazitäten den Marktpreis zu beeinflussen. Der Ölpreis orientiert sich vielmehr zunehmend an den Durchschnittskosten der US-amerikanischen Schieferölförderung. Falls es nicht kurzfristig zu bedeutenden Angebotsausfällen kommt, ist derzeit nicht mit einem Anstieg der Ölpreise auf das hohe Niveau der letzten Jahre zu rechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Zaklan & Claudia Kemfert, 2016. "Rohölmarkt: US-amerikanisches Schieferöl schwächt Marktmacht der OPEC," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(19), pages 429-433.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:83-19-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil markets; tight oil; OPEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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