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Atomkraft: Auslaufmodell mit ungelöster Endlagerfrage

Author

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  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Felix Reitz

Abstract

Three years after the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima one observes a certain momentum with regard to lifetime extensions as well as some interest in new building of nuclear power plants. Advocates of nuclear power argue in term of low-cost electricity generation, a secure supply as well as a contribution against climate change. The Reference Scenario of the European Commission - which sets the agenda on the EU Climate and Energy Strategy to 2030 - implies massive new buildings of nuclear power plants, not less than seven are forecasted for Poland alone. In Germany, too, voices are re-appearing that criticize the upcoming nuclear phase-out. However, DIW Berlin clearly derives that there is no "Renaissance" of nuclear power under way: the plans to construct new plants are concentrated in a few countries, mainly China. But foremost, the discussion neglects that nuclear power has never in history been produced economically, taking into account the costs of risks for mankind and the environment, the scrapping of nuclear waste, let alone the infrastructure of R & D and the corresponding national innovation system. The question where to store the highly radioactive waste is of yet unresolved. Phasing out nuclear is the safest and cost efficient strategy. The European discussion should not focus on analytical models that neglect a large part of the economic cost. Germany can continue its nuclear phase-out until 2022, without risking the supply security; this also holds for the upcoming closure of the Grafenrheinfeld nuclear power plant in 2015. Questions of scrapping old nuclear power plants and of long-term storage of radioactive waste have been ignored for a long time, they need to be addressed urgently now. Drei Jahre nach der Atomkatastrophe im japanischen Fukushima rücken Laufzeitverlängerungen bestehender Kernkraftwerke und der Bau neuer Reaktoren weltweit wieder stärker in den Fokus. Befürworter erhoffen sich eine kostengünstige Stromerzeugung, eine sichere Energieversorgung sowie einen Beitrag zum Klimaschutz. Das Referenzszenario der Europäischen Kommission - die Grundlage für die Diskussion der Energie- und Klimapolitik 2030 - legt einen massiven Ausbau der Atomkraft nahe, darunter den Neubau von sieben Atomkraftwerken in Polen. Auch in Deutschland mehren sich die Stimmen, die den bevorstehenden Atomausstieg kritisieren. Von einer Renaissance der Atomkraft kann nach Ansicht des DIW Berlin jedoch nicht die Rede sein: Laufende Ausbauprojekte konzentrieren sich auf wenige Länder, insbesondere China. Vor allem aber wird in der Diskussion vernachlässigt, dass Atomkraft bisher noch nie wirtschaftlich betrieben werden konnte, sofern Risiken für Mensch und Umwelt, Kosten für einen späteren Rückbau und die Endlagerung sowie der notwendigen Infrastruktur für Forschung und Entwicklung berücksichtigt werden. Die Fragen, wie und wo hochradioaktive Abfälle endgelagert werden sollen, sind ungelöst. Als sicherste und kostengünstigste Antwort erscheint daher der Ausstieg aus der Atomkraft. Die europäische Diskussion sollte sich nicht an Modellrechnungen orientieren, die einen großen Teil der Kosten vernachlässigen. Deutschland kann unbeirrt an seinem Atomausstieg festhalten, ohne die Versorgungssicherheit zu gefährden; dies gilt auch für die Abschaltung des Atomkraftwerks Grafenrheinfeld im Jahr 2015. Parallel zum Ausstieg sollten umgehend lange vernachlässigte Fragen des Rückbaus und der Endlagerung von Atommüll geklärt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian von Hirschhausen & Felix Reitz, 2014. "Atomkraft: Auslaufmodell mit ungelöster Endlagerfrage," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(13), pages 267-275.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:81-13-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian von Hirschhausen, 2014. "The German Energiewend - An Introduction," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nuclear energy; electricity; waste disposal; modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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