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Wenn sich Warten lohnt: der Effekt von Unsicherheit auf Investitionsentscheidungen

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  • Paul Viefers

Abstract

Between August and September 2012, the American political magazine, Foreign Policy asked a total of 62 well-known US economists what they saw as the main reason for the slow recovery of the labor market. The most common response was "uncertainty" (31 percent). But what exactly does this term mean? And why might it play such an important role? A recent study conducted by DIW Berlin on the basis of behavioral experiments examines the effect of uncertainty on the investment behavior of individuals. The analysis suggests that the reaction of individuals or households to even slight uncertainty is one of caution. Das amerikanische Politmagazin Foreign Policy befragte zwischen August und September 2012 insgesamt 62 bekannte US-Ökonomen, worin sie die Hauptursache für die schleppende Erholung des Arbeitsmarkts sehen. Am häufigsten genannt wurde "Unsicherheit" (31 Prozent). Was ist mit diesem Begriff konkret gemeint? Und weshalb spielt er eventuell eine wichtige Rolle? Eine aktuelle Studie des DIW Berlin geht dem Effekt von Unsicherheit auf Investitionsverhalten von Individuen in einem Verhaltensexperiment nach. Die Auswertung legt nahe, dass Individuen oder Haushalte schon auf geringe Unsicherheit mit Zurückhaltung reagieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Viefers, 2013. "Wenn sich Warten lohnt: der Effekt von Unsicherheit auf Investitionsentscheidungen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(4), pages 11-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-4-3
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.414569.de/13-4-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
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    Keywords

    Knightian Uncertainty; Irreversible Investment; Ambiguity Aversion; Multiple Priors; Optimal Stopping;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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