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Wintergrundlinien 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Simon Junker
  • Guido Baldi
  • Jacek Bednarz
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Karl Brenke
  • Christian Dreger
  • Hella Engerer
  • Christoph Große Steffen
  • Hendrik Hagedorn
  • Katharina Pijnenburg
  • Kristina v. Deuverden
  • Aleksandar Zaklan

Abstract

The German economy has recently lost momentum but is anticipated to accelerate markedly in the course of 2013. On annual average, real GDP will increase by 0.9 percent; the corresponding figure for 2012 is expected to be 0.8 percent. During the course of 2013, however, expansion will accelerate noticeably. The German economy will grow slightly over two percent in 2014. The temporary economic weakness will impact the labor market only moderately; the unemployment rate which dropped to less than seven percent in 2012 will revert to an annual average of seven percent in 2013. However, in 2014, this figure will noticeably decline. Disposable income will also increase significantly in 2013, and private consumption will be an important source of economic growth. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland hat zuletzt an Schwung verloren, wird sich aber in den kommenden Quartalen deutlich beschleunigen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 0,9 Prozent steigen; im vergangenen Jahr dürfte es mit 0,8 Prozent zugenommen haben. Im Jahresverlauf 2013 zieht das Expansionstempo aber kräftig an. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die deutsche Wirtschaft um etwas über zwei Prozent wachsen. Die vorübergehende wirtschaftliche Schwäche wird den Arbeitsmarkt nur leicht belasten; die Arbeitslosenquote, die vergangenes Jahr auf knapp sieben Prozent gesunken ist, wird im Durchschnitt des laufenden Jahres auf sieben Prozent steigen. Im kommenden Jahr geht sie aber merklich zurück. Die verfügbaren Einkommen werden auch in diesem Jahr deutlich expandieren, und der private Konsum wird eine wichtige Stütze der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Kat, 2013. "Wintergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(1/2), pages 3-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-1-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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