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Sommergrundlinien 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Simon Junker
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Karl Brenke
  • Mareike Breuer
  • Christian Dreger
  • Christoph Große Steffen
  • Hendrik Hagedorn
  • David Kunst
  • Katharina Pijnenburg
  • Kristina van Deuverden
  • Max Winkler

Abstract

In the projection period, the German economy will grow at a considerably slower pace than in the previous years. After a three per cent increase in 2011, German GDP will rise by only one per cent in this year and by close to two per cent next year. It is primarily domestic demand that drives this expansion, while exports are not expected to pick up until the turn of the year. The weaker economy is likely to lead to a temporary reduction in employment. On annual average, however, the unemployment rate will remain just below seven per cent in this and the next year. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird im Prognosezeitraum deutlich schwächer wachsen als in den vergangenen zwei Jahren. Nach drei Prozent 2011 dürfte die Produktion in diesem Jahr nur noch um ein Prozent zunehmen, 2013 werden es knapp zwei Prozent sein. Die Expansion in Deutschland ist in erster Linie durch die binnenwirtschaftliche Dynamik getrieben. Erst ab der Jahreswende dürften auch die Exporte wieder stärker zulegen. Die zunächst schwächere Konjunktur wird vorübergehend wohl auch zu einem Rückgang der Beschäftigung führen; die Arbeitslosenquote bleibt mit knapp sieben Prozent in diesem und im nächsten Jahr in jahresdurchschnittlicher Betrachtung aber stabil.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Mareike Breuer & Christian Dreger & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & David Kunst & Katharina Pijnenbu, 2012. "Sommergrundlinien 2012," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(26/27), pages 3-38.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:79-26-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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