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Verbraucherumfragen für Konsumprognosen besser nutzen

  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Mehr als die Hälfte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Euroraum wird für den privaten Verbrauch verwendet. Daher kommt der Genauigkeit von Konsumprognosen eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Da der Konsum maßgeblich von den Stimmungen der Akteure beeinflusst wird, weist die Europäische Kommission monatlich das Konsumentenvertrauen aus. Allerdings ist die Prognosequalität dieses Indikators leider nur gering. Im Folgenden wird daher ein Frühindikator für die Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte vorgestellt, der die dem Konsumentenvertrauen zugrunde liegenden Informationen besser nutzt. Damit kann die Genauigkeit der Prognose für den privaten Konsum im Euroraum erheblich gesteigert werden.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal DIW Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 28 ()
Pages: 3-8

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:78-28-1
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