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Russland im Sog der internationalen Finanzkrise

Author

Listed:
  • Hella Engerer
  • Mechthild Schrooten

Abstract

Russland treffen die Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanzkrise und fallender Energiepreise zu einem ungünstigen Zeitpunkt: In den kommenden zwei Jahren muss Russland internationale Kredite in erheblicher Höhe bedienen. Aktuell zeigt sich eine deutliche Abnahme der Währungsreserven sowie der kräftige Wertverlust des Rubel gegenüber dem US-Dollar. Zugleich reduzieren die gesunkenen Energiepreise die Einnahmen aus Energieexporten. Diese haben bislang wesentlich zur Finanzierung des Staatshaushaltes und zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Dynamik beigetragen. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Russlands dürfte sich daher künftig deutlich abschwächen. Die Verschleppung von wichtigen Strukturreformen kann ebenfalls dazu beitragen, dass sich die russische Volkswirtschaft auf dauerhaft geringere gesamtwirtschaftliche Zuwachsraten einstellen muss. Dies gilt insbesondere dann, wenn eine Abkehr von der aktuellen Energielastigkeit der Exporte nicht gelingt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hella Engerer & Mechthild Schrooten, 2009. "Russland im Sog der internationalen Finanzkrise," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(3), pages 38-45.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:76-3-1
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.93374.de/09-3-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Banerjee, Anindya & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 482, European Central Bank.
    2. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Russia; Energy; Banking;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General

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