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Konjunkturanalysen mit DIWAX

Author

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  • Stefan Kooths

Abstract

DIWAX is an agent-based software package designed to support macroeconomic forecasting based on national accounting schemes. Its main building blocks comprise a relational metadatabank for organizing data along standard economic and statistical classifications, a resource-based project management for downloading and importing data from many different sources (including output from macroeconometric models) and, most importantly, an analytic interface for analyzing data and designing forecasts within a user-defined framework. Software agents assist the forecaster's work in terms of performing routine work and checking the results for inconsistencies, irregularities or outdatedness. This paper describes the key features and underlying concepts for the development of DIWAX and delivers a preview on future extensions. DIWAX ist ein agentenbasiertes Softwarepaket für VGR-gestützte Konjunkturprognosen. Die Hauptkomponenten des Systems bilden eine relationale Metadatenbank, mit der Zeitreihen nach primär ökonomischen Kriterien beschrieben werden können, ein Ressourcenkonzept, das die Verbindung zu beliebig vielen heterogenen Datenquellen ermöglicht, sowie - als wesentlicher Teil des Systems - eine Analyseumgebung, die dem Anwender innerhalb eines frei gestaltbaren Ableitungsschemas bei der Prognoseerstellung unterstützt. Hilfsagenten übernehmen dabei Routineaufgaben, stellen die Aktualität der Datenbasis sicher, prüfen die Prognose auf Konsistenz und diagnostizieren mögliche Unregelmäßigkeiten. Der Beitrag beschreibt den konzeptionellen Aufbau der Software und stellt wesentliche Eigenschaften vor. Zudem wird ein Ausblick auf zukünftige Erweiterungen geworfen, zu denen vor allem die Integration makroökonometrischer Modelle gehört.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Kooths, 2007. "Konjunkturanalysen mit DIWAX," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 21-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-3
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.76.4.21
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle analysis; national accounting; forecasting; database software;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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