IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwdeb/2011-4-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

Excessive speculation on asset markets can cause significant macroeconomic losses in terms of production and employment. Such developments should be detected as early and as reliably as possible in order to enable corrective action through adequate economic policy measures. This is the goal of the early warning system, which was developed by DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance for the housing market. The early warning system predicts price surges on real estate market that were caused by speculation. If speculative price developments are detected quickly, economic policy has enough leeway to find an adequate response and possibly prevent further development of the bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 1(4), pages 3-9.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdeb:2011-4-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.386687.de/diw_econ_bull_2011-04-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; early warning system; price bubbles;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwdeb:2011-4-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.