IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v54y2026i3.html

Tracking the decline of first marriage in South Korea: Timing, quantum decline, and pandemic disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Sam Hyun Yoo

    (Hanyang University)

Abstract

Background: In South Korea, where most births occur within marriage, the country’s record-low fertility has put renewed attention on the long-term decline in first marriage. Despite rising policy and academic interest, systematic demographic analyses that disentangle structural and timing components of nuptiality change remain limited, especially in East Asia. Objective: This study examines trends in the quantum and timing of first marriage in South Korea from 1993 to 2023 and assesses whether the decline reflects structural retreat, postponement, or both. Methods: Using legally registered marriage data from the national vital statistics system, we construct three period indicators: the total first marriage rate (TFMR), the period proportion ever married (PPEM), and a tempo-adjusted PPEM (PPEM*). We estimate the never-married population using age-specific proportions from the census, applied to mid-year resident registration data. All indicators are calculated separately for men and women. Results: Both TFMR and PPEM declined markedly over three decades. Among women, PPEM and PPEM* showed parallel trajectories, indicating a structural retreat from marriage. Among men, PPEM fluctuated more sharply, and its widening gap with PPEM* after 2015 reveals stronger tempo effects. The temporary convergence in 2020 reflects compositional change due to a sharp fall in international marriages during the pandemic. Conclusions: The findings reveal a sustained decline in first marriage for both sexes, with men showing lower levels and greater sensitivity to timing shifts and external disruptions. Contribution: By extending tempo-adjusted analysis to first marriage, this study offers new insights into nuptiality decline in East Asia’s ultra-low fertility context.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Hyun Yoo, 2026. "Tracking the decline of first marriage in South Korea: Timing, quantum decline, and pandemic disruptions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 54(3), pages 71-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:54:y:2026:i:3
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/3/54-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sam Hyun Yoo, 2016. "Postponement and recuperation in cohort marriage: The experience of South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(35), pages 1045-1078.
    2. Frances Goldscheider & Eva Bernhardt & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 207-239, June.
    3. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    4. John Bongaarts & Tomáš Sobotka, 2012. "A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 83-120, March.
    5. Gøsta Esping-Andersen & Francesco C. Billari, 2015. "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka & Kryštof Zeman & Aiva Jasilioniene & Maria Winkler‐Dworak & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza & László Németh & Dmitri Jdanov, 2024. "Pandemic Roller‐Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher‐Income Countries During the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 23-58, July.
    7. Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    8. Myunggu Jung & D. Susie Lee, 2023. "Subnational variations in births and marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(30), pages 867-882.
    9. James M. Raymo & Hyunjoon Park, 2020. "Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 171-194, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Kryštof Zeman & Eva Beaujouan & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(25), pages 651-690.
    3. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Chen, Nana & Xu, Hangtian, 2021. "Why has the birth rate relatively increased in China's wealthy cities?," MPRA Paper 105960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
    6. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    7. Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    8. Ansgar Hudde, 2018. "Societal Agreement on Gender Role Attitudes and Childlessness in 38 Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 745-767, December.
    9. Sunnee Billingsley & Gerda Neyer & Katharina Wesolowski, 2022. "Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 951-974, December.
    10. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Daniel Ciganda & Nicolas Todd, 2019. "The limits to fertility recuperation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Lisa Van Landschoot & Helga de Valk & Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "Fertility among descendants of immigrants in Belgium: The role of the partner," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(60), pages 1827-1858.
    15. Natalie Nitsche & Anna Matysiak & Jan Bavel & Daniele Vignoli, 2018. "Partners’ Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1195-1232, August.
    16. Milovanović Miloš, 2023. "The Relationship between Fertility and Female Participation in the Labour Force in OECD Countries 2000–2020: It Is (Again) Negative," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 10(57), pages 254-274, January.
    17. Tan, Jolene & Cui, Qi & Uchikoshi, Fumiya, 2025. "The increasing importance of changes in nuptiality: policy mismatch and fertility decline in low-fertility Asian societies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Jolene Tan, 2023. "Perceptions towards pronatalist policies in Singapore," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 1-27, September.
    19. Costanza Giannantoni & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2025. "Regional government institutions and the capacity for women to reconcile career and motherhood," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 311-328.
    20. Elena Bastianelli & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Instability of Employment Careers and Union Dissolution. A Complex Micro-level Relation," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:54:y:2026:i:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.