Spatial perspective on environmental migration: Empirical insights from a spatiotemporal approach in the United States, 1970–2010

Background: Despite the growth of environmental migration studies in recent decades, spatial analyses examining the impact of climate variability on migration within the United States at a finer geographical scale remain limited. Objective: This study aims to investigate the environmental aspects of migration and explore the heterogeneous impacts of the environment on age- and place-specific migration patterns at the county level in the United States using spatial methods. Methods: We employed spatial techniques to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation variability on county-level net migration rates (NMRs) across age groups and rural/urban counties in the United States. Results: As temperature anomalies increase, nonmetropolitan counties experience a greater decline in NMRs compared to metropolitan counties, indicating that nonmetropolitan areas may be more sensitive to rising temperatures in terms of population change. The age-specific models revealed distinct migration patterns among working-age and older adults, with the NMRs of working-age adults showing a decreasing trend as temperature anomalies increase. In contrast, the NMRs of older adults show an increasing trend primarily in counties with historically cool climates. Conclusions: This study reveals that environmental factors, particularly temperature anomalies, influence migration patterns in the United States, with older adults exhibiting greater net migration in warmer and rural counties while working-age adults experience less net migration as temperature anomalies increase. Contribution: This study contributes to the environmental migration literature by employing spatial analysis to explore heterogeneous environmental impacts across age groups and locations in the United States at a finer geographic scale.