IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v54y2026i10.html

Academic expectations and university enrolment of migrant-origin students in Italy: Evidence by migrant generation and origin group

Author

Listed:
  • Eleonora Trappolini

    (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca (UNIMIB))

  • Francesca Di Patrizio

    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT))

  • Cristina Giudici

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

Abstract

Background: As second generation grow up in Italy, understanding how academic expectations translate into actual university enrolment is crucial for assessing future integration prospects, labour market success, and social mobility. Objective: Adopting a longitudinal perspective, this study investigates the match or mismatch between students’ academic expectations and subsequent university enrolment among students in their final year of Italian high school in 2015, focusing on differences by migrant generation and origin group. Methods: The analysis uses a unique dataset linking the 2015 Integration of the Second Generation survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) to university enrolment records for the academic years 2015/2016, 2016/2017, and 2017/2018 from the Ministry of University and Research. Multinomial logistic regression models analyse the association between students’ expectations–enrolment outcomes and migrant generation and origin group. Results: Results show that (1) among students with similarly positive academic expectations, migrant-origin students are less likely than their Italian classmates to enrol in university; (2) differences emerge by migrant generation; and (3) patterns across migrant groups are largely similar, with only limited exceptions. Conclusions: The findings reveal that migrant-origin students face greater difficulties in translating academic expectations into actual university enrolment, particularly among those who arrived in Italy at older ages, with similar variations by origin group. Contribution: By jointly analysing academic expectations and realised university enrolment, this study provides new national-level evidence on the (mis)match between expectations and outcomes among Italian and migrant-origin students, while also focusing on migrant generation and origin group. The findings highlight the importance of targeted support during the school-to-university transition to reduce mismatches between expectations and enrolment, particularly for migrant-origin students.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleonora Trappolini & Francesca Di Patrizio & Cristina Giudici, 2026. "Academic expectations and university enrolment of migrant-origin students in Italy: Evidence by migrant generation and origin group," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 54(10), pages 309-350.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:54:y:2026:i:10
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/10/54-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.10?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Böhlmark, Anders, 2008. "Age at immigration and school performance: A siblings analysis using swedish register data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1366-1387, December.
    2. Carlos J. Gil-Hernández & Pablo Gracia, 2018. "Adolescents' educational aspirations and ethnic background: The case of students of African and Latin American migrant origins in Spain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(23), pages 577-618.
    3. Harvey Goldstein & Michael J. R. Healy, 1995. "The Graphical Presentation of a Collection of Means," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(1), pages 175-177, January.
    4. Ferrara, Alessandro & Salikutluk, Zerrin, 2025. "Ambitious, misaligned, or uncertain? The occupational and educational aspirations of immigrant-origin youth in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(5), pages 1270-1293.
    5. repec:sae:mrxval:v:45:y:2011:i:3:p:702-726 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:sae:mrxval:v:45:y:2011:i:2:p:386-425 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Anthony Heath & Elina Kilpi-Jakonen, 2012. "Immigrant Children's Age at Arrival and Assessment Results," OECD Education Working Papers 75, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Di Liberto, 2013. "Length of stay in the host country and educational achievement of immigrant students: the Italian case," Working Paper CRENoS 201316, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    2. Sweetman, A. & van Ours, J.C., 2014. "Immigration : What About the Children and Grandchildren?," Discussion Paper 2014-009, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Galloway, Taryn Ann & Gjefsen, Hege Marie, 2020. "Assimilation of immigrants: Does earlier school exposure matter?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Gorodzeisky, Anastasia & Feniger, Yariv & Ayalon, Hanna, 2023. "Child’s age at migration, high school course-taking and higher education," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Zlata Bruckauf & UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, 2016. "Falling Behind: Socio-demographic profiles of educationally disadvantaged youth. Evidence from PISA 2000-2012," Papers inwopa837, Innocenti Working Papers.
    6. Nekby, Lena, 2010. "Inter- and Intra-Marriage Premiums Revisited: It’s probably who you are, not who you marry!," Research Papers in Economics 2010:23, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:osf:socarx:fghcd_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mukhopadhyay, Sankar, 2020. "Language assimilation and performance in achievement tests among Hispanic children in the U.S.: Evidence from a field experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Childbearing Across Partnerships in Italy: Prevalence, Demographic Correlates, Social Gradient," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_15, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    10. Pickery, Jan, 2002. "Contextual effects on the vote in Germany: A multilevel analysis," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Institutions and Social Change FS III 02-202, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    11. Marie C. Hull, 2023. "What divides the first and second generations? Family time of arrival and educational outcomes for immigrant youth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(3), pages 754-787, January.
    12. Sukanya Basu, 2018. "Age-of-Arrival Effects on the Education of Immigrant Children: A Sibling Study," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 474-493, September.
    13. Grönqvist, Hans & Niknami, Susan & Robling, P-O, 2015. "Childhood Exposure to Segregation and Long-Run Criminal Involvement - Evidence from the “Whole of Sweden” Strategy#," Working Paper Series 1/2015, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    14. Sander Gerritsen & Mark Kattenberg & Sonny Kuijpers, 2019. "The impact of age at arrival on education and mental health," CPB Discussion Paper 389.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Omar Paccagnella, 2006. "Centering or Not Centering in Multilevel Models? The Role of the Group Mean and the Assessment of Group Effects," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 66-85, February.
    16. Donata Marasini & Piero Quatto & Enrico Ripamonti, 2017. "Inferential confidence intervals for fuzzy analysis of teaching satisfaction," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1513-1529, July.
    17. Sander Gerritsen & Mark Kattenberg & Sonny Kuijpers, 2019. "The impact of age at arrival on education and mental health," CPB Discussion Paper 389, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Mikula, Stepan & Montag, Josef, 2023. "Roma and Bureaucrats: A Field Experiment on Ethnic and Socioeconomic Discrimination," IZA Discussion Papers 16218, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Yu-Cheng Ku & Tsun-Feng Chiang & Sheng-Mao Chang, 2017. "Is what you choose what you want?—outlier detection in choice-based conjoint analysis," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 29-42, March.
    20. Elisa Barbiano di Belgiojoso & Eralba Cela & Eleonora Trappolini, 2024. "The effect of migration and time spent abroad on migrants’ health: A home/host country perspective," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(37), pages 1113-1150.
    21. Cortina Toro,Magdalena & Jimenez,Juan Miguel & Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana, 2024. "Little Nomads : Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10686, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:54:y:2026:i:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.