Universal yet local: Estimating county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China

Background: Understanding China’s persistent low fertility requires detailed information regarding fertility attitudes at a finer geographic scale. However, data on fertility preferences at appropriate spatial resolutions are often unavailable. Objective: This study aims to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China. Methods: This study employs the multilevel regression and post-stratification method to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions. Fertility ideals and intentions data are drawn from a large national fertility survey, while post-stratification data come from the 2020 population census. The estimates are internally validated using a split sample approach and externally validated against independent national and regional surveys. Results: The estimates reveal that the county-level average ideal number of children for women of reproductive age is 1.98 (ranging from 1.29 to 3.78), while the average for the intended number of children is 1.81, with a broader range (1.02 to 3.96). The spatial distribution of fertility ideals exhibits a north–south contrast, suggesting cultural influences on family norms. Fertility intentions show coastal–inland disparities, underscoring socioeconomic conditions. Within-province variations are no less than between-province variations. Contribution: These findings highlight the complexity of the fertility attitudes landscape in China. The estimates also serve as an important data source for predicting future fertility and designing place-based policies.