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Estimating subnational preferences across the European Union

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  • Lipps, Jana
  • Schraff, Dominik

Abstract

Subnational analyses of political preferences are substantively relevant and offer advantages for causal inference. Yet, our knowledge on regional political preferences across Europe is limited, not least because there is a lack of adequate data. The rich Eurobarometer (EB) data is a promising source for European-wide regional information. Yet, it is only representative for the national level. This paper compares state-of-the-art methods for estimating regional preferences from nationally representative EB data, validating predictions with regionally representative surveys. Our analysis highlights a number of challenges for estimating regional preferences across Europe, such as data availability, variable selection, and over-fitting. We find that predictions are best using a Bayesian additive regression tree with synthetic post-stratification.

Suggested Citation

  • Lipps, Jana & Schraff, Dominik, 2021. "Estimating subnational preferences across the European Union," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 197-205, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:197-205_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessia Aspide & Kathleen J. Brown & Matthew DiGiuseppe & Alexander Slaski, 2023. "Culture & European attitudes on public debt," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 509-525, July.

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