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Subject to change: quantifying transformation in armed conflict actors at scale using text

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  • Foster, Margaret J.

Abstract

An extensive theoretical and practitioner literature addresses the drivers and consequences of transformation of violent rebel actors during conflicts. However, measurement challenges constrain large-N empirical study of the effects and consequences of such transformations. This Research Note introduces a strategy to identify periods of transformation and change in the operation of non-state armed militant groups via computational text analysis of trends in reporting on activities. It presents the measurement approach and demonstrates scalability to a corpus of more than 200 militant groups operating from 1989 to 2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination. An online Appendix demonstrates the advantages and drawbacks of the measurement through a series of case studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Foster, Margaret J., 2025. "Subject to change: quantifying transformation in armed conflict actors at scale using text," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 475-481, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:13:y:2025:i:2:p:475-481_15
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