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Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model

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  • Stegmueller, Daniel

Abstract

Much politico-economic research on individuals' preferences is cross-sectional and does not model dynamic aspects of preference or attitude formation. I present a Bayesian dynamic panel model, which facilitates the analysis of repeated preferences using individual-level panel data. My model deals with three problems. First, I explicitly include feedback from previous preferences taking into account that available survey measures of preferences are categorical. Second, I model individuals' initial conditions when entering the panel as resulting from observed and unobserved individual attributes. Third, I capture unobserved individual preference heterogeneity both via standard parametric random effects and a robust alternative based on Bayesian nonparametric density estimation. I use this model to analyze the impact of income and wealth on preferences for government intervention using the British Household Panel Study from 1991 to 2007.

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  • Stegmueller, Daniel, 2013. "Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 314-333, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:21:y:2013:i:03:p:314-333_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    2. Fiona Steele & Emily Grundy, 2021. "Random effects dynamic panel models for unequally spaced multivariate categorical repeated measures: an application to child–parent exchanges of support," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 3-23, January.
    3. Steele, Fiona & Grundy, Emily, 2021. "Random effects dynamic panel models for unequally-spaced multivariate categorical repeated measures: an application to child-parent exchanges of support," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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