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Endogenous Jumping And Asset Price Dynamics

Author

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  • Lim, G. C.
  • Martin, Vance L.
  • Teo, Leslie E.

Abstract

A model of asset price dynamics is derived in which large jumps in stock prices are determined endogenously. An important property of the model is that it can lead to asset price distributions that are multimodal. The model can explain how relatively small changes in dividends can lead to relatively large changes in asset prices and it can be used to identify the time period in which bubbles begin and end. The framework is applied to modeling the U.S. stock market crash in October 1987. Some forecasting experiments also are conducted with the result that the model is able to predict the size of the eventual crash in the aggregate stock price.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, G. C. & Martin, Vance L. & Teo, Leslie E., 1998. "Endogenous Jumping And Asset Price Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 213-237, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:02:p:213-237_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Hervé Crès & Tobias Markeprand & Mich Tvede, 2016. "Incomplete financial markets and jumps in asset prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 201-219, June.
    2. Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "Financial crashes as endogenous jumps: estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-141, January.
    3. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Myeong Jun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and net futures positions: A dynamic conditional distribution approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 217-225.

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