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Elasticity Of Substitution And Technical Progress: Is There A Misspecification Problem?

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  • Federici, Daniela
  • Saltari, Enrico

Abstract

In previous work, we estimated a dynamic model of the Italian economy, showing that its weakness in the past two decades is mainly due to the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. In those models, two parameters play a key role: technological progress and the elasticity of substitution. Recent estimates of those parameters are affected, in our opinion, by a specification problem: technological parameters are inherently long-run but their estimates are based on short-run data. Looking deeply into the estimation procedure, we show that the misspecification issue present in the estimates gives rise to a spurious regression bias (high R 2, low DW), because the standard approach does not incorporate frictions and rigidities. Our modeling strategy takes account of them. Although we cannot in general say that our framework gets rid of the serial correlation problem, the statistics for our model do show that residuals are not serially correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • Federici, Daniela & Saltari, Enrico, 2018. "Elasticity Of Substitution And Technical Progress: Is There A Misspecification Problem?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 101-121, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:01:p:101-121_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Mistretta & Francesco Zollino, 2021. "Recent Trends in Economic Activity and TFP in Italy with a Focus on Embodied Technical Progress," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 79-107, March.
    2. Bellocchi, Alessandro & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2023. "Can variable elasticity of substitution explain changes in labor shares?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Saltari, Enrico & Federici, Daniela, 2014. "Elasticity of substitution and the slowdown of the Italian productivity," MPRA Paper 58422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alessandro Mistretta & Francesco Zollino, 0. "Recent Trends in Economic Activity and TFP in Italy with a Focus on Embodied Technical Progress," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 0, pages 1-29.
    5. Saam, Marianne, 2014. "The identification of directed technical change revisited," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-127, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Sergio De Nardis & Francesca Parente, 2022. "Technology and task changes in the major EU countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 391-413, April.
    7. Samuele Ialenti & Guido Pialli, 2024. "The increase in the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour: a repeated cross-country investigation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 380-400, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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