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Policy Rules, Regime Switches, And Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation For The United States

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  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Greco, Luciano
  • Raggi, Davide

Abstract

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters and switches in policy shocks’ volatility for the post-World War II (WWII) U.S. economy. We contrast a rule embedding a fixed-inflation target with another featuring trend inflation, i.e., a time-varying inflation target. The rule embedding trend inflation turns out to be (a) empirically superior according to a marginal likelihood-based comparison and (b) more able to pin down some relevant episodes of the post-WWII U.S. monetary policy history. Estimates conducted with Greenbook data confirm the empirical superiority of the rule featuring a time-varying inflation target. A comparison with recently published estimates of trend inflation is also conducted.

Suggested Citation

  • Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2014. "Policy Rules, Regime Switches, And Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation For The United States," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 920-942, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:04:p:920-942_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    2. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
    4. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    5. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo Hedibert F. Lopes, 2016. "Rational Sunspots," Economics Series Working Papers 787, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. De Lipsis Vincenzo, 2021. "Dating Structural Changes in UK Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 509-539, June.
    9. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.

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