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Volatility and Expected Option Returns

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  • Hu, Guanglian
  • Jacobs, Kris

Abstract

We analyze the relation between expected option returns and the volatility of the underlying securities. The expected return from holding a call (put) option is a decreasing (increasing) function of the volatility of the underlying. These predictions are supported by the data. In the cross section of equity option returns, returns on call (put) option portfolios decrease (increase) with underlying stock volatility. This finding is not due to cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns. It holds in various option samples with different maturities and moneyness, and is robust to alternative measures of underlying volatility and different weighting methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Guanglian & Jacobs, Kris, 2020. "Volatility and Expected Option Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 1025-1060, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:55:y:2020:i:3:p:1025-1060_10
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amit Goyal & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No," Working Papers 2214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Kevin Aretz & Ming-Tsung Lin & Ser-Huang Poon, 2023. "Moneyness, Underlying Asset Volatility, and the Cross-Section of Option Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 289-323.
    3. Liu, Qing & Wang, Shouyang & Sui, Cong, 2023. "Risk appetite and option prices: Evidence from the Chinese SSE50 options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Yang, Shuwen & Aretz, Kevin & Liu, Hening & Zhang, Yuzhao, 2022. "Consumption risks in option returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 285-302.
    5. Mathias S. Kruttli & Brigitte Roth Tran & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2019. "Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Kanne, Stefan & Korn, Olaf & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2023. "Stock illiquidity and option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Augustyniak, Maciej & Badescu, Alexandru & Bégin, Jean-François, 2023. "A discrete-time hedging framework with multiple factors and fat tails: On what matters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 416-444.
    8. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Bingxin, 2023. "Option Returns, Risk Premiums, and Demand Pressure in Energy Markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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