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Professional Expectations: Accurary and Diagonosis of Errors

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  • Elton, Edwin J.
  • Gruber, Martin J.
  • Gultekin, Mustafa N.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the errors made by professional forecasters (analysts) in estimating earnings per share for a large number of firms over a number of years. We have demonstrated in a previous paper that consensus (average) estimates of earnings per share play a key role in share price determination. In this paper, we examine consensus estimates with respect to the following questions: (1) What is the size and pattern of analysts' errors? (2) What is the source of errors? (3) Are some firms more difficult to predict than others? (4) Is there an association between errors in forecasts and divergence of analysts' estimates?

Suggested Citation

  • Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Gultekin, Mustafa N., 1984. "Professional Expectations: Accurary and Diagonosis of Errors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 351-363, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:19:y:1984:i:04:p:351-363_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Ka Wai Choi & Xiaomeng Chen & Sue Wright & Hai Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 146-173, June.
    2. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1998. "Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 768-805, August.
    3. Erwin, Gayle R. & Perry, Susan E., 2000. "The effect of foreign diversification on analysts' prediction errors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 121-145.
    4. Acar Berkan & Becchetti Leonardo & Manfredonia Stefano, 2021. "Media coverage, corporate social irresponsibility conduct, and financial analysts' performance," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1456-1470, September.
    5. Platikanova, Petya & Mattei, Marco Maria, 2016. "Firm geographic dispersion and financial analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-89.
    6. You, Linqing & Chen, Zhuoqiong, 2022. "A theory of firm opacity and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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